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Tuesday,
July 24,
2007, #139 (1406) Not long ago Georgian media caught wind of an article published a month ago in the Lithuanian newspaper Delfi.In the article, Lithuanian political analyst Saulus Lebauskas predicts gloom and doom saying Georgia and Russia are headed for an armed conflict in 2008. According to the analyst, a new Russian president will be elected on March 9, 2008 and in an attempt to win immediate political points, he will try to ‘deal with’ Georgia. He says post-Soviet history shows that each new leader tries to assert Russia’s ‘imperial ambitions’ in the Caucasus. He cites former Russian president Boris Yeltsin as well as President Vladimir Putin and their wars on Chechnya. Yeltsin was mid-way through his presidency when he waged war in 1994 with the now firmly-controlled region. This war ended in 1996 but as soon as Putin came to power after Yeltsin resigned he resumed the war in 1999. Lebauskas claims that for the next Russian president, fighting in Chechnya will not be enough. He says the next president knows that the war in Chechnya is not as profitable as it was in 1994–1996 and in 1999–2001. He asserts that Russian generals and the Kremlin need new ‘wars’ for new sources of revenue. He says that an action in the South Caucasus, and in particular Georgia, would allow the country to put the “shameful” and “unsuccessful” North Caucasus operations in Chechnya behind them. He says Georgia is the perfect target. It’s eager to integrate into NATO, it’s geopolitically strategic especially as a transit country for energy projects, and its economy is growing despite the sanctions Russia has imposed. According to Lebauskas’ prognosis, a Georgia–Russia conflict will start in late 2008 or in 2009 but the attack will not be direct. It will use Abkhaz and Ossetian separatists. Russian special services and the armed forces will partially assist them. The real purpose of this war will not be a military victory over Georgia but to destabilize the region and cause a turnover in the current administration in Georgia which he seems to presume will win the 2008 parliamentary and presidential elections. He details that the separatists will have a planned simultaneous attack in Abkhazia in the upper Kodori Gorge as well as in South Ossetia in the territories that are controlled by the Georgian government. He claims terrorist groups will blow up oil and natural gas pipelines and other strategic state assets on Georgian territory. And in the end, the Georgian armed forces will find it very difficult to oppose them. Lebauskas argues that because conflicts in the Middle East are higher profile and more of a priority, the conflict in Georgia will not evoke an international reaction. After their defeat, Georgians will not even be able to think about NATO integration. After terrorist acts against energy pipelines running through Georgia, Russia will become more attractive as an energy resource for Europe.
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Predictions of Russian War on Georgia Unrealistic