Five possibilities of supply Russian military base in Armenia

Military analyst from Russia Anatoly Tsiganok in his interview to Russian Nezavisimaia Gazeta suggests 5 options for supplying the Russian military base with arms and personnel in Gumri, Armenia. Georgia did not prolong the transit agreement on supplying the Russian base in Armenia and the agreement will cease functioning by the autumn of 2011. The Russian analyst suggests the following options: 1. passing through Turkey either by air or by land. In his opinion Turkey will take advantage of the deteriorating Russian-Georgian relations and might agree on the transit of military cargo to Armenia through Turkey. This would involve monitoring the transit and possible blocking. 2. Through Azerbaijan by air, in this case Russia will be obliged to make serious concessions in regards of Azerbaijan. 3. Through the Caspian Sea and Iran to Armenia, this is the longest but most realistic route but is also the most expensive. 4. The fourth option is to create big reserves of arms, ammunition and other logistics in Gumri and hire personnel on contractual terms and the 5th option is the theoretical possibility of using Georgian air space with Armenian transport planes for transporting Russian personnel and military cargo. According to Tsiganok the termination of the agreement between Georgia and Russia in military transit will not help the improvement of relations between Georgia and Armenia.