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Possible outcomes of the presidential election

By Messenger Staff
Wednesday, October 23
Just four days prior to the presidential election scheduled for October 27, analysts, journalists and other citizens continue to discuss the possible results and developments of the presidential election.

There are 23 candidates running for presidency, but everybody is unanimous in naming the candidate of the Georgian Dream coalition, Giorgi Margvelashvili, leader of the Democratic Movement –United Georgia, Nino Burjanadze and the candidate of the United National Movement (UNM), Davit Bakradze as the three main candidates. Again, almost unanimously, everybody predicts that Margvelashvili will win the race. The question is whether Margvelashvili will win it in the first round or if a second round will be necessary.

The fact that Marvelashvili said he would withdraw if the second round is needed, is not considered to be serious. Prime Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili and Margvelashvili himself have expressed their confidence about winning the race with an absolute majority, predicting around 70% of the votes or even more.

If this will be the case, everything will happen smoothly and quickly. On November 17, Margevlashvili will be inaugurated, he will become the president and the cohabitation experiment will come to an end. The presidential post will be in the hands of the Georgian Dream coalition.

However, an alternative opinion still exists. This opinion is supported by certain polling results and the overall difference of the population. It gives way to speculation that many people will not go to the polling stations at all and this will prevent anyone in the leading trio achieve 50%+1 support.

If a second round is needed, of course, Margvelashvili will participate in it. PM Ivanishvili’s statement that in case of a second round, he would recommend Margvelashvili not to take part, is not considered to be the final decision. It is unlikely that this scenario would come to fruition. Besides, if the second round is needed, nobody doubts that Margvelashvili will win it.

So, who will be the number two in the case of a second round?

Bakradze is being promoted by the UNM supporters and the voters who were frustrated with the victory of the Georgian Dream coalition in the last year’s parliamentary race. According to various estimations, their number will gain about 15%.

Burjanadze, meanwhile, is supported by the population who were oppressed during the UNM leadership; those who hold a grudge against the UNM and their candidate, and want to restore justice and demand punishment of the UNM as a team.

So, the estimation also suggests that Burjanadze will also manage to gain approximately the same amount of votes as Bakradze. So, the difference between the results of these two candidates will be decided by a tiny majority of the votes and it could possibly go in any direction.

As for the possibility of a second round, if Bakradze comes in second, Burjanadze’s supporters will definitely vote for the candidate of the Georgian Dream coalition. Whereas if Burjanadze comes the second, Bakradze’s supporters will definitely not vote for her. Then they would either ignore the second round or vote for Margvelashvili.

There will be one more result if the candidate of the Georgian Dream coalition fail in the elections with the overwhelming majority. This time, the demand on holding snap parliamentary elections will increase and although Ivanishvili as well as the UNM are against snap elections, the non-parliamentary political entities will try to do their best to force the country’s leadership to hold snap parliamentary elections.