Russia aims to annex both de-facto regions

While there is much dispute over the treaty Russia wishes to sign with Abkhazia, Russia is also trying to offer the same agreement to South Ossetia. It is clear that unlike Abkhazia the treaty will face no obstacles and for Georgia it might result in even worse consequences than the agreement drafted with Abkhazia.

The statement concerning the treaty in South Ossetia put the current government in a very complicated and awkward situation, as the Georgian Dream administration takes normalization of relations with Russia as one of its most important achievements.

According to the information spread by Osradio, Parliament Speaker of South Ossetia Anatoly Bibilov stated that a treaty on collaboration and integration between Moscow and Tskhinvali is being drafted.

“The document will be wider than the version suggested to the Abkhazians,” he said, and admitted that the document will be finalized before the end of the year.

After the Security Council meeting on October 28, head of Parliament’s Defense and Security Council Irakli Sesiashvili stated that the situation appears to have become tense regarding South Ossetia as well. He suggested that the current government will do its utmost to address the challenges appropriately.

“I believe that Russia is attempting to undertake the same plan in regions of Georgia and Moldova as it did in Crimea,” he said.

Analyst Tornike Sharashenidze forecasts that the treaty signed with South Ossetia will carry more risks to Georgia’s national security than the one being offered to Abkhazia.

“Russia faces no obstacles in Ossetia, as the region is completely dependent on the Kremlin. Taking the region’s location into account, the treaty with South Ossetia is especially dangerous for Georgia’s security. It is extremely easy to attack Tbilisi from the region and lay siege to the capital,” Sharashenidze states. (Tskhinvali is about 35 kilometers from Tbilisi).

The region administration reacted very negatively towards the offer made by Prime Minister of Georgia Irakli Gharibashvili several days ago, who offered wide autonomy for both de-facto regions within Georgia.

The statement issued by the Defense Ministry of South Ossetia reads that there is a real world and a virtual world in which Georgian officials live.

“The reality is that South Ossetia is a recognized state, which was set up through the expression of the will of its residents and which has boundaries and state symbols. Whether Georgia wants to or not, they will have to take it into account," says the statement.

It is obvious that Russia is not going to give up its occupation intentions. Which leads us to this question: How will the Georgian government oppose this threat? Analysts believe that the government should undertake an active international campaign and enforce its defensive capacities. Some analysts also suggest that Georgian-Russian relations will deteriorate soon.