Georgia's Government Risks Isolation from the West as U.S. Sanctions Escalate

By Malkhaz Matsaberidze

Thursday, October 3, 2024

Ahead of the parliamentary elections, the ruling Georgian Dream party threatens official Washington with a break in relations if more sanctions are imposed on Georgian officials. Experts believe this threat will not intimidate the U.S. and will harm Georgia by distancing it from the West, pushing the country toward Russia at an accelerated pace.

September 16 could be a pivotal moment in U.S.-Georgia relations. On this day, the U.S. State Department announced visa sanctions against 60 Georgian citizens-representatives of the government, business, and law enforcement agencies-for "undermining democracy in Georgia." These visa sanctions extend to family members of these individuals. On the same day, the U.S. Treasury Department sanctioned four Georgian citizens for activities undermining fundamental human rights: Zviad Kharebava, head of the Special Tasks Department of the Ministry of Internal Affairs; his deputy, Mileri Lagazauri; and pro-Russian Alt-Info founders Zurab Makharaidze and Konstantine Morgoshia.

This news seems to have deeply unsettled the leaders of Georgian Dream. The very next day, Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze called the new U.S. sanctions package unserious and unfortunate. Kobakhidze once again blamed the deterioration of U.S.-Georgian relations on former U.S. Ambassador Kelly Degnan. Additionally, he framed the U.S. sanctions as an attempt to interfere in the parliamentary elections on October 26.

All of this fits into the ongoing anti-American rhetoric within the already sharply deteriorated relationship between Georgian Dream and the U.S. However, a new twist emerged-Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze summoned U.S. Ambassador Robin Dunnigan to the State Chancellery and declared that by imposing sanctions, the American side had "approached a critical threshold," and that if a similar decision were made again, Georgia might "qualitatively reconsider" its stance on U.S.-Georgian relations.

Clearly, the Prime Minister could not have made such a statement without consulting Bidzina Ivanishvili, so it must be assumed that he acted on Ivanishvili's directive. Kobakhidze's threat toward the U.S. signals two things:

First, it shows that the imposition of sanctions has caused panic within Georgian Dream. The news of the new sanctions was delivered to the parliamentary majority during a meeting. Many fear that the sanctions will continue and might target them as well. Experts note that Georgian Dream did not expect to pay such a high political price. The West did not turn a blind eye to repression, persecution, and physical assaults. News of the sanctions was met with joy by the opposition. According to Tina Bokuchava, chair of the United National Movement, "violence against the Georgian people with European aspirations is being punished harshly by Georgia's friends." Bokuchava added that the sanctions serve as a "warning to Ivanishvili himself." Likely, Ivanishvili also lost his composure; otherwise, Kobakhidze would not have made such a statement to the U.S. Ambassador.

Second, it has been made clear to everyone that under the rule of Georgian Dream, relations with the U.S. will not improve. Until now, Ivanishvili and the leaders of Georgian Dream had claimed that the situation would stabilize after a few months, when the war in Ukraine ended, and the West would no longer pressure the Georgian government to join the war, and "everything would fall into place." For the past several months, Georgian Dream leaders had been talking about the need for a "reset" in relations with the U.S., implying an improvement. However, Kobakhidze's threat-laden statement now virtually rules out the prospect of better relations.

Of course, Kobakhidze's words did not scare the Americans. When U.S. State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller was asked about Kobakhidze's statement that the U.S. had "approached a critical threshold" with its decision to impose sanctions, Miller responded with a question of his own: "A threshold for what?" and left it unanswered. U.S. Ambassador Robin Dunnigan noted that actions and statements that isolate Georgia further from the West, Europe, and the U.S. are not in the interest of the Georgian people.

The opposition points out that the Georgian people did not give the Georgian Dream government a mandate to distance the country from the West, and this will be evident in the October 26 elections. "How does Bidzina Ivanishvili plan to threaten the U.S. and the EU?" asks MP Roman Gotsiridze, answering his own question: "By taking Georgia, which he holds hostage, toward Russia and handing it over to Russia." According to Gotsiridze, the Prime Minister's statement is criminal and anti-state. He added that if Georgian Dream remains in power, Georgia will face complete international isolation.

Georgian Dream continues to promote conspiracy theories about a global force in the West that influences political institutions in the U.S. and the EU. Reflecting this mindset, Kobakhidze claimed that the decision to impose sanctions was not made by official figures like President Biden but by "oligarchic forces," and that the U.S. needs "de-oligarchization."

In the deterioration of relations with the U.S., the ruling party leaders have alternately blamed former U.S. Ambassador Kelly Degnan, the so-called global war party, and the Georgian opposition. Simultaneously, Georgian Dream has repeatedly accused individual U.S. political leaders of attempting to interfere in the elections and incite unrest in the country. The party's founder and honorary chairman, Bidzina Ivanishvili, refused to meet with U.S. Senators Jeanne Shaheen and Mike Turner, who were on an official visit to Georgia. Kobakhidze did meet with them, but the meeting sparked a scandal. Kobakhidze's warning about approaching the "critical threshold" will likely only trigger a new wave of anti-Western statements.