What Happens After the Elections: Three Possible Scenarios

By Malkhaz Matsaberidze

Wednesday, October 23, 2024

As the October 26 parliamentary elections approach, there is growing interest in what the outcome will be and what will happen on October 27. This question is not only on the minds of people within Georgia but also of foreign observers, including long-time friends of Georgia and openly aligned supporters of the ruling Georgian Dream party. Both the ruling Georgian Dream and the so-called "radical opposition," as labelled by the current government, are confidently predicting their future victory. However, we should not rule out more complicated "intermediate" scenarios.

Let's begin with the Georgian Dream's desired scenario. The leaders of the ruling party unanimously talk about their party's 60% rating and the inevitability of securing a constitutional majority in the next parliament. A recent survey by the research organisation "Gorbi" indeed reported a 59.5% rating for them, which sparked mocking reactions from the opposition.

What will happen if the Central Election Commission announces results in line with this prediction for Georgian Dream? According to other polls, which the opposition finds more credible, Georgian Dream's rating hovers around 30%, meaning the ruling party would not win the elections. In case the Georgian Dream rigs the elections, naturally, the opposition would call for protests, and it's likely that the West would not recognize these results. New sanctions would be imposed on the Georgian Dream, and Georgia's European prospects would be taken off the table. The government, meanwhile, would turn to repression to quash the protests, following the example of Lukashenko's Belarus. The so-called radical opposition would once again be accused of attempting a Western-backed revolution, leading to the "natural" banning of the "collective United National Movement" - in other words, all pro-Western political parties. This has already been hinted at multiple times by Bidzina Ivanishvili, who referred to it as "cleansing the political system" and "liberation from Western agents". If the Georgian Dream manages to pull this off, this kind of isolated regime could survive in Georgia as long as Putin's rule continues in Russia.

The second scenario is being discussed by the pro-Western opposition. According to this scenario, Georgian Dream may come in first in the elections but would only secure around 30% of the vote, forcing them into opposition. The government would be formed by parties that Georgian Dream labels as the "radical opposition" or the "collective United National Movement." These parties include alliances around the United National Movement, Lelo, and Akhali, as well as Gakharia's party. They have already signed the charter proposed by President Zurabishvili, and after their victory, they plan to swiftly fulfil the European Union's 9 recommendations in order to start EU accession talks. They also intend to create conditions for fair elections and hold new parliamentary elections ahead of schedule. This would be ensured by a technical government proposed by President Zurabishvili, made up of specialists. This scenario is likely the most desirable for the country's progress, but Georgian Dream is not the kind of party that would willingly transition from power to opposition, especially when its leaders face significant personal risks.

The third, more "intermediate" scenario seems the most likely. Despite their anti-Western rhetoric, Georgian Dream still seeks recognition of the election results by the West and claims to be aiming for EU membership - albeit with "peace, dignity, and prosperity" (as their campaign banners say). They assure voters that "after the war in Ukraine ends," things will settle down, the "global war party" will calm, and Georgia will restore its "good" relations with the West. Therefore, it's possible that Georgian Dream will avoid large-scale election fraud and record a more "modest" victory, somewhere in the range of 40-45%. Afterward, the search for additional votes in parliament will begin. There are several possibilities:

- Georgian Dream would receive a significant portion of the votes from parties that fall below the 5% threshold, as allowed by law, making their victory seem more impressive;

- They could form alliances with parties that make it past the 5% barrier, such as the Patriots' Alliance or Iago Khvichia's Girchi;

- They might entice individual parliament members from other parties to switch sides, a tactic Georgian Dream has used successfully in the past.

Through these methods, it may be possible not only to retain power but also to contemplate winning a constitutional majority. In this scenario, protests are inevitable, with the opposition likely boycotting parliament. Georgian Dream would again talk about attempts to stage a revolution and might activate its repressive apparatus, but their main hope would be to wait out the protest wave. They recall the post-2020 election period, when no opposition party entered parliament, but over time, the opposition was individually coaxed into parliament. Back then, European Council President Charles Michel visited Georgia three times, trying to broker an agreement between Georgian Dream and the opposition, genuinely believing that everyone wanted EU membership and the reforms to make it happen.

Soon we will see which of these scenarios will play out.