Georgia's Political Crisis: Power Clash Leads to Parallel Leadership

By Malkhaz Matsaberidze

Tuesday, December 31, 2024

In the ongoing political crisis in Georgia, December 29 had emerged as another key date. On this day, the Georgian Dream inaugurated Mikheil Kavelashvili, chosen as president by Bidzina Ivanishvili. Meanwhile, President Salome Zourabichvili had identified December 29 as the ultimate deadline by which Bidzina Ivanishvili must have come to the presidential residence to negotiate the scheduling of new parliamentary elections. It was unlikely that such negotiations would take place, but with this proposal, Salome Zourabichvili would have exhausted the final chance for dialogue, pushing the political crisis into a new and more complex phase.

On December 22, President Salome Zourabichvili addressed protesters on Rustaveli Avenue, announcing a shift to a so-called "offensive tactic" following the publication of the OSCE/ODIHR report. The position of the president and the protesting public is clear: new parliamentary elections must be held following the rigged elections of October 26. This would be the logical way out of the current political crisis. To discuss the elections, Salome Zourabichvili invited the country's informal ruler, Bidzina Ivanishvili, to the presidential residence. Ivanishvili has the ability to bring the current leaders of the Georgian Dream, including Kobakhidze, Papuashvili, and Mdinaradze, to the table. However, the decision regarding new elections had to be made by December 29.

As expected, Bidzina Ivanishvili did not appear, and the spokespersons of Georgian Dream dismissed Zourabichvili's proposal as "not serious", instead announcing October 28, 2028, as the date for the next parliamentary elections.

Georgian Dream considers the 11th convocation of Parliament, composed solely of its members, as legitimate. Mikheil Kavelashvili's inauguration took place on December 29. By doing so, GD closes the door on negotiations for good. Meanwhile, Zourabichvili gathered citizens in front of the Presidential Palace on the same day and announced that she would leave the residence, taking the legitimacy with her along with the flag. She left the Palace, but remains as the only leader in the country that the West considers legitimate.

The position of Georgian Dream is clear. They refuse to agree to holding new parliamentary elections as doing so would mean acknowledging the rigging of the October 26 elections, for which they themselves would be held accountable. Calling new elections would be tantamount to losing power for the party and Bidzina Ivanishvili. In exchange, they might secure certain guarantees of safety, but for now, they believe they can retain their hold on power.

Given the ongoing protests, Mikheil Kavelashvili's inauguration could not take place in an open space, such as Rustaveli Avenue or Freedom Square. Instead, the inauguration was held in the parliamentary chamber, attended exclusively by members of the Georgian Dream. No ambassadors from other countries had been invited to the event, which serves as a form of 'defense' for Georgian Dream - as Western ambassadors likely would not attend anyway. By nominating Kavelashvili, Bidzina Ivanishvili has effectively ruled out any possibility of compromise or negotiations with the West. Kavelashvili is well known for his anti-Western statements.

What will be Kavelashvili's first actions as president? Expectations are already forming: domestically, a declaration of a state of emergency is anticipated, which would lead to a renewed violent suppression of protests. Internationally, a visit to Moscow is expected, ostensibly presented as a step toward restoring Georgia's territorial integrity. In reality, this move would likely lead to the re-establishment of diplomatic relations with Russia and further entrench Georgia within Putin's sphere of influence.

The immediate plans of Georgian Dream, or more accurately, Bidzina Ivanishvili, are relatively clear: no compromises, retaining power, ignoring or attempting to suppress protests, and moving toward establishing an authoritarian regime. However, what remained uncertain for Dream is Salome Zourabichvili's next moves. Having announced an "offensive tactic," Zourabichvili has also stated that new elections will either be the result of negotiations or the regime "collapsing on its own", a process she claims has already begun.

Zourabichvili's potential actions are a significant concern for the party, evident in the direct threats of arrest made by Irakli Kobakhidze. Should such an arrest take place, GD would likely face even harsher sanctions, a scenario they are well aware of. As a result, they assert that they have no intention of imprisoning a 72-year-old woman unless she crosses so-called red lines.

What specifically worried Ivanishvili? Several scenarios had been suggested:

a. Salome Zourabichvili could have declared the 11th convocation of Parliament dissolved and called for new elections. While Dream would refuse to comply, this would exacerbate the legitimacy crisis.

b. Salome Zourabichvili could have refused to vacate the presidential residence after December 29. Notably, opposition political parties had already proposed this to Zourabichvili, stating that they were ready to physically protect her. In this scenario, Georgian Dream attempting to storm the presidential residence would undoubtedly damage its public image.

Both scenarios represent steps toward a form of "dual power" in the country. However, Zourabichvili can take similar actions now that she has left the residence. Since December 22, she has been intensively negotiating with political parties that crossed the 5% threshold in the October 26 parliamentary elections. It has already been decided that two advisory councils will be established under the president: one consisting of political party representatives and another of civil society representatives.

Discussions are actively underway on how to conduct elections that are free and democratic. Holding new elections is increasingly seen as inevitable, especially given the growing wave of protests and external pressure.