Georgia in Turmoil: Protests, Repression, and Political Uncertainty

By Malkhaz Matsaberidze

Tuesday, January 21, 2025

Amid ongoing protests in Georgia demanding new elections and analogous calls from Western allies, Georgia's ruling party, Georgian Dream, is doubling down on its position. In what opposition figures have described as the start of a new wave of political repression, the party has announced plans to launch legal proceedings against the opposition United National Movement (UNM).

At a briefing on January 9, Mamuka Mdinaradze, the executive secretary of Georgian Dream, revealed that a temporary parliamentary commission will be formed to investigate the actions of the UNM-led government from 2003 to 2012. The commission, set to convene during the first week of the spring session, will operate for six months, presenting its findings to parliament in September.

The report is expected to recommend constitutional, political, and legal measures against those found culpable, with the findings forwarded to prosecutors and courts. The investigation will also scrutinize Georgia's role in the 2008 war, though officials stressed it will exclude military commanders and soldiers from its scope.

Ahead of the October 26, 2024 parliamentary elections, billionaire and former Prime Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili publicly outlined plans to hold the "collective United National Movement" accountable. Touring Georgia's regions encased in a bulletproof glass enclosure, he emphasized that Georgian Dream needed a "constitutional majority" to achieve this objective.

The party currently associated with the jailed former president Mikheil Saakashvili and operating under the name United National Movement holds an estimated approval rating of 10-15%. However, Georgian Dream has broadened its narrative to include all pro-Western political forces under the label of the "collective United National Movement," including former Prime Minister Giorgi Gakharia's political party.

This strategy signals that all political groups which surpassed the 5% electoral threshold in the October 26 elections-according to even Georgian Dream's calculations-now face the threat of legal action. Notably, these are the same opposition forces that continue to boycott parliament, refusing to take their seats.

Ahead of the October 26 elections, Bidzina Ivanishvili stated that the prosecution and banning of the so-called "collective United National Movement" were essential for "revitalizing the country's political system." He claimed their place would be taken by new "healthy" parties.

This immediately led to speculation that these "healthy" parties would likely consist of existing or future anti-Western political groups, potentially more pro-Russian than Georgian Dream itself. Following the October 26, 2024 elections, no opposition party entered parliament, leaving Georgian Dream represented solely by its 89 MPs. However, a splinter faction, People's Power, broke away from Georgian Dream to form an "opposition" group in parliament. This new faction is virtually indistinguishable from Georgian Dream, apart from its stated intent to adopt a more critical stance toward the West. In essence, it represents the embryonic stage of an opposition tailor-made to suit the ruling party's preferences.

Pro-government politics reviewers welcomed Mdinaradze's announcement, framing it as fulfilling the "will of the electorate". They echoed Bidzina Ivanishvili's rhetoric about the need to "eliminate the radical opposition," portraying them as "foreign agents" acting against Georgia's interests.

Pro-Georgian Dream analysts welcomed Mdinaradze's announcement, framing it as fulfilling the "will of the electorate". They echoed Bidzina Ivanishvili's rhetoric about the need to 'eliminate the radical opposition', portraying them as 'foreign agents' acting against Georgia's interests.

The key difference from pre-election rhetoric is the frequent use of the term "deep state". It appears that Georgian Dream still hopes to "repair relations" with the new U.S. president, Donald Trump, and, in doing so, neutralize growing international pressure and escape isolation. "Georgia needs to rid itself of the radical opposition just as the U.S. needs to free itself from the deep state," Mdinaradze declares. The narrative has even extended to claims that the "Rose Revolution" and the 2008 August War were orchestrated by the "deep state".

Yet, with Trump's inauguration, Georgian Dream's optimism about the new U.S. administration is waning. If Trump maintains Biden's course, they are likely to claim he, too, failed to defeat the "deep state", leaving Georgian Dream to "defend Georgia's sovereignty" alone. In such a case, the party appears to be shifting its reliance toward anti-Western powers-overtly on China, now officially Georgia's sole strategic partner, and more subtly on Putin's Russia.

What prompted the announcement of a commission to investigate the "criminal activities" of the United National Movement from 2003 to 2012, heralding what many see as a new wave of repression? Primarily, this is a response to sanctions from the West. With this move, Georgian Dream aims to showcase its resilience, demonstrating to both domestic and international audiences that neither the widespread protests in the country nor external sanctions can undermine its position. However, despite efforts to project strength, the Georgian Dream's government is facing significant challenges.

Another noteworthy aspect is the timing. The parliamentary commission has been given a six-month mandate, with its conclusions to be handed over to Georgian Dream's prosecutor's office by September. This aligns with the party's preparations for the fall 2025 local self-government elections. For Georgian Dream, these elections are likely to be a significant headache, particularly amid mounting domestic and international demands for substantial improvements in election standards.

However, in today's rapidly shifting political climate in Georgia, six months is a particularly long horizon to predict. The wave of protests in the country shows no signs of abating. While its mass scale may fluctuate periodically, the protests have continued uninterrupted, even through the New Year holidays. After an initial phase of violent crackdowns, Georgian Dream halted street-level repression but intensified its legal persecution, which has backfired-further fueling the protests instead of instilling fear.

The situation is evolving daily, and numerous developments could occur, both domestically and internationally, that might alter the trajectory of events. In such an unpredictable environment, the outcomes anticipated by Georgian Dream may prove far from certain.