South Caucasus and the New Geopolitical Landscape

By Malkhaz Matsaberidze

Wednesday, January 29, 2025

In 2025, the South Caucasus finds itself in a reshaped geopolitical landscape: Georgia, once a key strategic partner of the West in the post-Soviet period, has moved away from Western alignment under the "Georgian Dream", gravitating instead towards Russia and China. Conversely, Armenia is gradually distancing itself from Russia and seeking closer ties with the West. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan's leader, Ilham Aliyev, accuses Armenia of being a fascist state and issues threats of renewed conflict.

"Georgian Dream" concluded the year of 2024 openly distancing from the European Union following the contentious October 26 elections. During a briefing held on November 28, 2024, Irakli Kobakhidze announced that they would not place the issue of "opening negotiations with the European Union" on the agenda until the end of 2028 and that they would refuse "any form of budgetary grants from the EU" until that time. In a way, it was a response to the European Parliament's resolution, which deemed the October 26 parliamentary elections fraudulent. The process of sanctioning "Georgian Dream" leaders by EU member states has already begun.

It is unlikely that relations between the European Union and "Georgian Dream" will be "smoothed over." Following January 20, there is growing anticipation in Georgia regarding the stance of the United States' new administration toward Bidzina Ivanishvili's ruling team. The opposition predicts a tightening of sanctions initiated by the Biden administration, while "Georgian Dream" and its experts hope that President Trump will not have the time to focus on Georgia, thus paying less attention to developments in the country. If this turns out to be the case, "Georgian Dream" will have a chance to "catch its breath" for a little while, which cannot be said in the event of the first scenario.

Recently, Armenia has refrained from participating in events organized within the framework of the CSTO, including military exercises. In February 2024, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan announced that Armenia had effectively frozen its participation in the CSTO. He stated that the CSTO failed to fulfill its obligations toward Armenia and, on the contrary, two member states of the organization assisted Azerbaijan during its military operations in Nagorno-Karabakh in 2020. As a result, Armenia suffered defeat in the war in Nagorno-Karabakh, leading to the exodus of the Armenian population from the region.

According to a recent assessment by Armenia's Foreign Intelligence Service, it is unlikely that the reasons for freezing Armenia's CSTO membership will disappear in 2025. Clearly, this stance has provoked dissatisfaction within Russia's leadership.

Armenia is also cautiously distancing itself from the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and the Eurasian Union. At the end of December 2024, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan did not attend the informal CIS summit in Russia or the Supreme Economic Council meeting of the Eurasian Economic Union. The Armenian Prime Minister cited illness from COVID-19 as the reason for his absence.

In parallel with distancing itself from Russia, Armenia is working to establish new foreign policy priorities. Specifically, following its defeat in Karabakh, the country is striving to strengthen ties with the European Union and initiate integration processes. On January 9, 2025, the Armenian government approved a draft law titled "On Initiating the Republic of Armenia's Accession Process to the European Union." The draft will soon be discussed in Armenia's parliament and is expected to be approved.

In parallel with distancing itself from Russia, Armenia is working to establish new foreign policy priorities. Specifically, following its defeat in Karabakh, the country is striving to strengthen ties with the European Union and initiate integration processes. On January 9, 2025, the Armenian government approved a draft law titled "On Initiating the Republic of Armenia's Accession Process to the European Union." The draft will soon be discussed in Armenia's parliament and is expected to be approved.

On January 15, 2025, Armenia's Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken signed a strategic partnership agreement in Washington. The agreement aims to expand cooperation in areas such as the economy, security and defense, and democracy.

During the signing ceremony, Blinken announced the creation of a Strategic Partnership Commission to oversee the implementation of the agreement. He also emphasized that efforts are underway with Armenia to strengthen the country's sovereignty and territorial integrity.

In the fall of 2024, it seemed likely that a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan would be signed, potentially resolving the long-standing conflict between the two countries. However, on January 7, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev stated in an interview with local television that Armenia poses a threat to the region and that its military armament could lead to new tensions.

Aliyev also called on France and other countries supplying weapons to Armenia to cancel their contracts and reclaim the arms already delivered. Predictably, neither Armenia nor its partners will comply with this demand. Armenia's government has repeatedly emphasized that maintaining a combat-ready army is a sovereign right of the country.

The demand for Armenia's disarmament was followed by threats of a new war. According to Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, Armenia, as an independent state, is essentially a "fascist state" because it was governed for nearly 30 years by leaders with "fascist ideology," which shaped the country accordingly. Aliyev asserted that Azerbaijan remains a neighbor to a fascist state, and this threat has not disappeared. "Therefore, fascism must be eradicated. Either Armenia's leadership will eliminate it, or we will. There is no other option," Aliyev declared.

Hopefully, this is just posturing and won't derail the prospects for peace.