On November 13, an IMF mission to Georgia released a summary of its finding from a visit at the beginning of the month. While economic growth continues to be strong, they wrote, there are warning signs of the economy overheating.

Economic growth in the first half of the year came to 12.5 percent, the report reads, “impressive given the external shocks associated with Russia’s economic embargo along with higher energy and food prices.”

Total growth for the year should be around 12–13 percent, the team predicted, driven in large part by direct foreign investments.

That foreign capital is expected to top USD 2 billion in 2007—but the rest of the year’s inflow has been thrown into question by the political turmoil of the last week.

The danger of overheating is born out by worrisome inflation rates. The year’s rate, as of the end of October, came to 11.2 percent. The IMF team chalked up the rise in part to international price hikes on basic foodstuffs, but also to a “very rapid rise in broad money.”

The mission advised Tbilisi to more tightly control the money supply and allow the currency to float more freely to keep inflation within single digits.

The next IMF mission is being scheduled for the first quarter of 2008.