Though several months are left until Russians cast their votes for their next president, the election was all but decided when Vladimir Putin endorsed Dmitry Medvedev as his successor on Monday.

Putin is constitutionally barred from taking another consecutive term in office; Medvedev has said he will “ask” Putin to take the post of prime minister.

Medvedev, Gazprom’s chairman, is both close to and politically dependent on Putin, ensuring that there will be little change in who wears the trousers in Moscow.

There was, however, immediate speculation on whether a Medvedev presidency could nonetheless bring changes to Russian foreign policy.

Commentators and politicians from all three South Caucasus states think not, as far as their countries are concerned.

Azeri analyst Shakhin Rzaev, speaking to Regnum, said he was confident that Putin’s continuing control would leave little room for unexpected decisions in Russian relations with Azerbaijan. Adhering to the same path, he added, would satisfy Baku.

Armenian analyst Amaiak Ovanessian concurred, enthusiastically predicting that Russian-Armenian cooperation will only deepen in the years to come.

Armenian ruling party MP Samvel Nikoian was similarly sunny, quoted by Regnum as saying relations between the two countries will develop nicely regardless of who holds the presidency.

In Georgia, meanwhile, analysts and politicians agree that a new face for Russian president won’t lead to any significant changes in Russian politics. That, of course, is less positive for Georgia’s fortunes. Barring a change here, the countries will remain unhappy adversaries.

“This will be the same Russia,” said the chair of the Committee for European Integration, Nino Nakashidze. And if this will be the same Georgia after January, one can expect Tbilisi and Moscow to continue to battle.