Post-aggression Georgia: possible scenarios
Tuesday, September 2
Russia is no longer bombing Georgia and most of its troops have withdrawn. But the aggression is not over. On the contrary, it has simply transformed itself into a different beast.
Moscow is trying to maintain equilibrium for time being; it wants to see how strongly and substantially the West and USA will answer the Kremlin’s challenges to the world order, how much they will tolerate. If it sees that the civilized world will continue treating it in a mild, tolerant, civilized, forgiving way, if it splits opponents to its actions into several factions and if it gains any support apart from Venezuela, Cuba, Hamas and Hezbollah it will continue its subversive actions against Georgia. This means it will try and overthrow the Saakashvili government and substitute it with a puppet regime, thus becoming the sole controller of the political situation in the South Caucasus.
While discussing different options experts do not exclude the resumption of military operations on the ground. Russian troops can commit many surprise acts of provocation and then blame Georgians for them. They are good at demagoguery. They carry out ethnic cleansing and kill people in Georgian villages and then cry about a “genocide of the Ossetian population” for example. Provocations can be expected in the so-called buffer zones so diligently entrenched, illegally, by the Russian troops. Hopefully Moscow would not dare launch a tank assault on Tbilisi, but this might just stimulate the appetite of the warlords in the Kremlin. There are so many temptations around! Crimea… Transdnestria… hmmm…
If we observe the comments of Russian politicians and media we can assume that either the whole country (with rather few exceptions) has gone mad or a Stalin-type propaganda machine has been restored. Enough of naivety! Russia was never a peacekeeper in Georgia! We have written about this hundreds of times! Neither are they staying here for peace now! They are here to foment dissatisfaction with the Georgian government and install puppet, separatist-oriented local rulers. First these “rulers” will be obliged to repudiate Tbilisi, then Russian passports will be distributed, then the rest, which is now known pretty well, will follow.
Moscow has not given up its plan to overthrow the Saakashvili administration. It is only the means of achieving this goal which has slightly altered. Military action did not achieve the desired result, but economic actions could be taken at any time. Russian Tsar Nikolai I said at the beginning of the nineteenth century, “Russia has two generals : General January and General February!” Winter is approaching and the Kremlin possesses the “perfect” lever to create a mood of dissatisfaction in the population - energy! Russia’s two Generals are in action today, against Georgia and against Europe.
Russian calculations went wrong, its intelligence failed! According to its prior information, as soon as Russian troops entered Georgia people would come out on the streets and overthrow the Georgian administration. But neither the opposition or the general population would do this, and on the contrary united against the common enemy. Georgia’s internal problems are for it to resolve, we don’t need Moscow’s assistance!
Ultimately the support Saakashvili received during the crisis should not be understood by him and his administration as meaning that everything is all right. He should behave in accordance with the demands of the people, take appropriate steps, concentrate on the quick healing of war wounds, attract honest professionals to his service and answer many awkward questions. But we repeat categorically: this should not be any of Moscow’s concern whatsoever!
All these hopes and dreams could fail if the civilized world abandons Georgia. Removing Russia’s occupation forces from the buffer zones should be the primary task for Georgia and its friends from around the world. If this is not done in the near future it will be impossible to achieve any reasonable success in either an economic or political direction. If the USA and the West do not support Georgia now, they will condemn not only this little country but themselves to eternal blackmail as hostages of the Russian bear.
Moscow is trying to maintain equilibrium for time being; it wants to see how strongly and substantially the West and USA will answer the Kremlin’s challenges to the world order, how much they will tolerate. If it sees that the civilized world will continue treating it in a mild, tolerant, civilized, forgiving way, if it splits opponents to its actions into several factions and if it gains any support apart from Venezuela, Cuba, Hamas and Hezbollah it will continue its subversive actions against Georgia. This means it will try and overthrow the Saakashvili government and substitute it with a puppet regime, thus becoming the sole controller of the political situation in the South Caucasus.
While discussing different options experts do not exclude the resumption of military operations on the ground. Russian troops can commit many surprise acts of provocation and then blame Georgians for them. They are good at demagoguery. They carry out ethnic cleansing and kill people in Georgian villages and then cry about a “genocide of the Ossetian population” for example. Provocations can be expected in the so-called buffer zones so diligently entrenched, illegally, by the Russian troops. Hopefully Moscow would not dare launch a tank assault on Tbilisi, but this might just stimulate the appetite of the warlords in the Kremlin. There are so many temptations around! Crimea… Transdnestria… hmmm…
If we observe the comments of Russian politicians and media we can assume that either the whole country (with rather few exceptions) has gone mad or a Stalin-type propaganda machine has been restored. Enough of naivety! Russia was never a peacekeeper in Georgia! We have written about this hundreds of times! Neither are they staying here for peace now! They are here to foment dissatisfaction with the Georgian government and install puppet, separatist-oriented local rulers. First these “rulers” will be obliged to repudiate Tbilisi, then Russian passports will be distributed, then the rest, which is now known pretty well, will follow.
Moscow has not given up its plan to overthrow the Saakashvili administration. It is only the means of achieving this goal which has slightly altered. Military action did not achieve the desired result, but economic actions could be taken at any time. Russian Tsar Nikolai I said at the beginning of the nineteenth century, “Russia has two generals : General January and General February!” Winter is approaching and the Kremlin possesses the “perfect” lever to create a mood of dissatisfaction in the population - energy! Russia’s two Generals are in action today, against Georgia and against Europe.
Russian calculations went wrong, its intelligence failed! According to its prior information, as soon as Russian troops entered Georgia people would come out on the streets and overthrow the Georgian administration. But neither the opposition or the general population would do this, and on the contrary united against the common enemy. Georgia’s internal problems are for it to resolve, we don’t need Moscow’s assistance!
Ultimately the support Saakashvili received during the crisis should not be understood by him and his administration as meaning that everything is all right. He should behave in accordance with the demands of the people, take appropriate steps, concentrate on the quick healing of war wounds, attract honest professionals to his service and answer many awkward questions. But we repeat categorically: this should not be any of Moscow’s concern whatsoever!
All these hopes and dreams could fail if the civilized world abandons Georgia. Removing Russia’s occupation forces from the buffer zones should be the primary task for Georgia and its friends from around the world. If this is not done in the near future it will be impossible to achieve any reasonable success in either an economic or political direction. If the USA and the West do not support Georgia now, they will condemn not only this little country but themselves to eternal blackmail as hostages of the Russian bear.