When will the crisis peak?

The Georgian administration constantly claims that Georgia is resisting the world economic crisis quite successfully and has not been touched by the financial meltdown as of yet. Independent experts meanwhile try to foresee when the crisis will peak in Georgia and what condition the country’s economy will fall into when that happens.

Economic analyst Emzar Jgerenaia thinks it is very difficult to make a reliable prognosis, however he gives his vision of possible developments. “The US crisis will peak at the end of March, Europe will be hit worst in May-June and only then will the wave of depression reach Georgia and the CIS countries,” Jgeranaia thinks. It is very important how the US and Europe manage to resist the crisis, particularly in the construction and development business and banking sector. Jgerenaia predicts a further decrease in oil prices and other problems.

According to him development in Georgia will depend very much on the situation in Europe. If Europe’s economy is damaged Georgia will receive little or no assistance. The month of June will be the most decisive, suggests the expert.

Fellow analyst Revaz Sakevarishvili thinks that during the worst period of crisis unemployment will reach 25%, or 350,000 people. Despite the creation of certain jobs in some industrial sectors jobs will be lost at a swifter rate.

At present 14% of the work capable population of Georgia is unemployed. In addition there are certain categories of self-employed people doing seasonal jobs who do not have permanent employment. Jgerenaia estimates this group is about 2.8 million strong, around half a million fulfilling irregular contracts and the rest self employed. Jgerenaia’s estimation of possible unemployment is more pessimistic; by the beginning of second half of 2009 it could reach half a million.