Russia benefits from Turkish-Armenian relations warming

Polish analyst Marcina Zhebki thinks that Russia will benefit the most from the warming of Turkish-Armenian relations, apart from the two countries concerned.

The analyst suggests that opening borders and normalising relations with Turkey will boost the Armenian economy. Russia will be happy about this because it has been giving huge loans to Armenia. Azerbaijan’s interest was ignored by Turkey during the signing of the protocols as the Karabakh problem was not officially put on the agenda at the discussion of these, but most probably the Parliaments of both countries will discuss different issues before ratifying them. Therefore to balance the situation Baku will start flirting with Russia and the latter will eventually benefit from that.

Eventually all this might create problems in the implementation of the NABUCCO project, something which is again in Russia’s interests, says Zhebki. Some analysts however challenge this. If Turkish-Armenian relations develop in positive directions and there will thus be no further need of Russian support, the Armenian economy will be reoriented and eventually Russia’s influence over the country will diminish. Turkey cannot ignore Azerbaijan completely, therefore it will activate its efforts to resolve the Karabakh problem and its influence will increase if it manages to do this. According to these arguments Turkish influence in the region will increase and Russia’s will at the best remain the same, if not diminish, if the borders open. Other arguments could also be made.