Turkey in the Caucasus

US analytical centre Stratfor has analysed Turkish policy in 2009. It says that during that year Turkey tried to transform itself into the regional power, and its step towards normalising relations with Armenia was a bold one, but stimulated by Russian support, so Moscow is pursuing its own goals by furthering this process.

The aim of Moscow's policy is to make either Armenia or Azerbaijan become more attached to Russia. By encouraging Turkish-Armenian relations Moscow has managed to create discord between Turkey and Azerbaijan. By the end of 2009 however it had become clear that Ankara had overplayed its hand in the Caucasus, and in 2010 confrontation in the Caucasus will increase.