Who will benefit from good Turkish-Armenian relations?

In an article on histmag.org Polish analyst Kamil Janicki discusses who will benefit from improved relations between Turkey and Armenia. He says that Russia is interested in increasing its influence in the South Caucasus and therefore Armenia’s success is in its interest as Armenia is its main ally in the region. Opening the Turkish-Armenian border will facilitate Armenia’s economic growth.

The EU is also interested in improving the situation in the region through stabilising it. However we should remember that Russia imposed war on Georgia to hinder this country’s development as a transit entity. Janicki highlights that there is also a conflict of interest between Turkey and Russia, in particular over Abkhazia but also in terms of both countries' involvement in the region, but he acknowledges that the traditional Turkey-Iran-Russia triangle, which has functioned as a diplomatic entity since the 18th century, could still be seen as a going political concern.

The analyst thinks that the Parliaments of both Turkey and Armenia will ratify the border opening documents. The only thing which might stop this would be further confrontation in Karabakh.