Kazcynski’s death: Moscow’s geopolitical gain

The tragic death of Lech Kaczynski, President of Poland, and many of the Polish political establishment in the recent plane crash was such a “surprise present” for Russia’s leadership that certain analysts have started talking about a possible terrorist attack being behind it. For instance the well-known Russian dissident journalist and public figure Valeria Novodvorskaya has called the plane crash Katyn 2. “Anti-Soviet Kaczynski made only one error - he flew a Soviet plane over Soviet territory, trusting the Soviet leadership," she said.

Quite recently several things have happened which have led to a rapid increase in Russia's importance in its near neighbourhood. First Georgian territory was invaded and occupied by Russia and the world has not forced Moscow to withdraw. On the contrary, it has been militarising these regions ever since. Then the openly pro-Russian Viktor Yanukovich took power in the Ukraine. The recent coup d'etat in Kyrgyzstan has brought Roza Otunbayeva into power there and she is also pro-Moscow. Kazakhstan and Belarus are practically integrated with Russia as they have formed a customs union with it. Now the Polish President and his team have died in a plane crash, and many analysts suggest that this will result in a very substantial geopolitical gain for The Kremlin.

Kaczynski was the only European President who consistently and steadily opposed Russia’s aggressive moves in Europe through mobilising Eastern Europe's leaders and uniting them against Moscow’s wicked moves. He was the only person who unequivocally opposed and loudly condemned Russia’s subversive actions in Europe. Kaczynski supported Euro-Atlantic expansion and initiated various EU projects such as the Eastern Partnership and European Neighbourhood Policy. He was a brave man, and proved this when he came to Tbilisi with the Presidents of the Baltic countries and Ukraine when it was under threat of being bombed by the Russians on August 12 2008. The Presidents stood together right in the centre of the Georgian capital while the Russian air force flew openly over Georgian territory. He boldly said then that he had come to fight. "Our neighbour thinks that it should subordinate its neighbouring peoples, but we say No!, because we know that today it is Georgia, tomorrow the Baltic Counties and then it will be the turn of my country, Poland," Kaczynski said.

The Polish President's death is great loss for Georgia. As most of his team died with him it is difficult to predict what will happen now in Poland. If current PM Tusk becomes President there is a high probability that he will cooperate with Moscow, and therefore many things in European geopolitics will alter. However everything now depends on the will of the Polish people. As for Moscow the only geopolitical problem it has left is the "undesirable" Georgian leadership. Will Moscow be as lucky in Georgia as it has been in the other countries it wants to control?