Still threat from Russia

Analysts noted elements of excessive military rhetoric in the recent statement made by Russian President Medvedev while in India. He threatened that in case of a terrorist attack from any country Russia would respond with military forces, adding that in 2008 Russia responded to a military assault from the neighbor country. It seems that Medvedev continues to reverse the facts. Georgians never crossed the Russia border and did not attack Russian forces inside Russian territory. All in all Georgia never had any intentions to militarily provoke Russia. It was Russia who entered Georgian territory and instigated the military insult planned by Moscow against Tbilisi.

However there is another aspect of Medvedev’s rhetoric which is being interpreted differently by Georgian analysts; the possibility of a future assault. Some believe that it is impossible for Russia to attack Georgia under the current circumstances, others, however see a serious threat in Medevedv’s words causing them to think that the Kremlin is looking for other causes and reasons to attack Georgia. According to their opinion, in 2011 Georgia may be assaulted by Russia. There is always a complex of guilt within the Russian leadership. Sometimes they speak poorly about Georgia with absolutely no reasons to justify their behavior. Some time ago Prime Minister Putin mentioned at the CIS Summit in Moscow that it was Georgia's loss for withdrawing from the organization. This time Medvedev was boasting in front of the studens of Indian Technological Institute that it was a right and correct move against Georgia. What is this if not a complex of inferiority and the complex of guilt?

Moscow is seriously concerned that most of the world community condemns its aggression against Georgia and apart from some marginal countries, nobody has recognized Georgia’s breakaway territories as independent states. On the contrary, the world community confirms that Russia is occupying the territories of its neighboring country and demands the withdrawal of Russian troops. The Kremlin stubbornly continues its unfair policy of trying to cheat the world by using all possibilities available.

Overall, the Russian position is dangerous for Georgia as Russia is an entity that doesn’t obey the rules of the game at the international level; it does what it wants to do and it is always ready to commit different subversive actions and provocations particularly when there is nobody to detect their tricks. It is well known that for many years Moscow was blaming Tbilisi as if the latter was sheltering North Caucasian militants - terrorists as Russia labels them. Only after OSCE monitors were deployed on the Russian-Georgian border it was publicly proved that Russia’s allegations were lies. But now Moscow torpedoed the presence of international observers either from the OSCE or the UN in Georgian territories and therefore it can claim what it wants.

Some Georgian analysts think that under the circumstances Moscow can create some provocations within the border zone of Georgia and Russia in the mountainous regions and claim that Georgia is sending terrorists to Russia and therefore launch punitive operations. Those who deny such possibilities say that the west wouldn’t allow Moscow to do so. However, the reality is different. Today Russia occupies 1/5 of Georgian territory while the west protests the situation even though it remains the same. Skeptics think that as the west tolerates the occupation of 1/5 of Georgia by Russia it can cope with Moscow occupying 1/3 of Georgia or even more. Moscow is continuing its imperialistic policy while the westerners are naively trying to reset the policy with Moscow.

It is said that the fear has big eyes but maybe this saying is not absolutely adequate when you have Russia as your neighbor.