Unclear situation in the South Caucasus

James Sherr, Head of the Russia and Eurasia Programme at the Royal Institute of International Affairs thinks that following the August 2008 war the west and the US have not abandoned the South Caucasus, particularly Georgia and continue their support. However analysts suggest that the US has no strategic targeted initiative for the Caucasus. He suggests that the US does not evaluate Armenia’s flexible policy properly. According to Sherr the west is mistaken in believing that Armenia facilitates Russian policy, because it is not like that. Armenia is conducting a policy of balance based on historic peculiarities and its lack of natural resources. There is also the significant factor of the Armenian Diaspora. Armenia’s leadership understands that Russia does not want to the Karabakh problem to be solved fairly and completely. Armenia should have benefited from better western policy which up until now has not been available, thinks the analyst. The conclusion of British political analyst is that eventually situation in the South Caucasus is unclear. Russia and the west have identified the spheres in which they are interested but it is very difficult to predict what will be next.