Certain forces try to undermine situation in South Caucasus

On April 28, the head of the Islam committee in Russia, Heydar Jemal, claimed that a coup d'etat in Azerbaijan is being masterminded by USA and prepared in Georgia,in his interview with Salam News.

Though the author of the statement names Georgia and the USA as key players in the alleged coup d'etat, most analysts agree that there is only one country which wants to deteriorate the situation in the South Caucasus and confront two good neighborly nations of Georgia and Azerbaijan, and this is of course Russia. This would of course be in the best interests of the Kremlin. Moscow is taking financial advantage of the current unrest in Islamic countries and is creating something similar in Azerbaijan. Baku meanwhile is carrying out very balanced politics, trying to be neither completely pro-Russian nor completely pro-western. By doing so it is trying to solve the Karabakh problem.

Against this background, Heydar Jemal’s statement is further aggravating an already complicated situation. Georgian newspaper Versia contacted Jemal in Russia but he refused to name the source of his information. Jemal alleges that in Azerbaijan the new "colour" revolution is being prepared. According to him mass protests should start on 28th of May in Azerbaijan. The forces who stand behind these provocations have already achieved certain goals, as the American and Georgian sides might try to explain the situation to the Azeri side. So far neither the Georgian side nor the Americans are making any official comment. However MP David Darchiashvili, Chairman of the Parliamentary Commission of European Integration still made a small statement saying that this was an absurd idea and absolutely out of the context of the current political situation, particular regarding the relations of Georgia and Azerbaijan. So it looks like the author of this idea is either absolutely insane or he is a provocateur who is fulfilling somebody’s order and who targets heightening tension in the relations between Georgia and Azerbaijan. Commenting about the allegations, Georgian political analysts are pointing their fingers at the Russian federation as Georgia and the USA are not interested at all in spoiling their relations with Azerbaijan. This does not comply with Azeri interests either. There are certain forces, namely Russia which will eventually benefit from any kind of complications in the situation in the region as it seeks to benefit from the complicated situations in North Africa and Middle East recently. These allegations are based not only on real threats but because unrest in oil-producing country will be beneficial for Russia. It will frustrate the western hopes to receive alternative from Russia energy carriers from Azerbaijan.