Georgia at the crossroads

2012 and 2013 will be decisive years for outlining Georgia’s development. This is very well understood both in Georgia and among its allies worldwide. Georgia’s future was touched upon in the research published by the Carnegie foundation under the title 'Georgia’s choices' written by the regional expert Thomas de Waal. The author gives his vision of possible developments within the country, which could pose significant problems for the country.

The research suggests that the first phase of development started with the rose revolution and lasted until 2008. The second phase saw the August 2008 war with Russia and the gathering support of the international community for stabilization. The third phase considers the forthcoming presidential and parliamentary elections. The author thinks that this third phase will be crucial for the country as it has to determine the major points of the country’s development.

The Rose administration thinks and promotes Singaporisation of the country. The authorities understand Singaporisation of the country to mean preserving the current political party at the head for an unlimited time and controlling the economy, eventually leading the state away from the “regulations of a free market” economy. The alternative to Singaporisation is the development of the country in the direction of integrating it towards the EU. Although the country’s leadership has several times declared its EU orientation, sufficient steps have not been taken in this direction. The EU offers the country a real free market economy development but to implement this there are serious institutional reforms to be implemented. Essentially this means that the elite are not exercising its political and economical benefits.

The research shows that the writer and analyst is quite seriously concerned about the future of the country. He thinks that simultaneous Singaporisaton and Europeanization for the state are not compatible. However the Georgian leadership wants to combine those two directions. It will try to create a system to combine liberal economy development with that of the European system. There might be the possibility of Georgia receiving long term assistance from the EU and combining it with the Singapore model. There are two questions however; first, how viable are these systems together? Secondly, how would they match each other and how compatible are one another? Aside from this of course is the major issue of how the country’s elections will be held, first the parliamentarian and then the presidential.

Georgian analysts are still very concerned about the transparency and fairness of the elections process.