CIS to strengthen its security

Under a Russian initiative a collective security organization exists which allegedly is a body to secure safety and stability over CIS space. In reality it is a Russian masterminded attempt to monitor situation to control this space.

Some days ago the Kazakhstan capital Astana hosted the summit of the collective security organization which was dedicated to risk analysis against the background of current events in the world. The events concerned included the serious unrest in the Arab world and subsequent revolutions. It is well known that the situation in the bulk of post soviet countries is fragile. In most of them there are autorotation regimes and of course the prospect of revolutionary change hoping for democracy is a serious danger to such ruling authorities. So, Moscow attempts to unify the efforts of these countries to safeguard their own regimes in these countries.

The Arab revolutions were a cause for serious hopes in the post soviet space. After the frustration of the colour revolutions where only Georgia's rose revolution survived, the Arab revolutions showed a vivid example of how social networks managed to mobilize the population bringing the collapse of certain regimes, in particular in Egypt. Unfortunately the events in the Arab world were also the scene of mass bloodshed. In post soviet countries, leaders are expected to be ready to take preventive measures if such revolutions gather support. During the recent summit in Astana the participants agreed that the collective security treaty should try to create a barrier against spreading either colour or Arab type revolutions there. The preventive measures envisage cyber space control and monitoring. Much of the success of the Arab revolutions was determined by Facebook and Twitter social networking systems. The collective security treaty also plans to consolidate its efforts in a military direction as well, so that these forces could be activated to respond to any kind of military threat in this space. However so far there are no mutually acceptable conditions in this direction as some leaders in post soviet countries do not like the idea of military forces being deployed on their soil.

The threat of revolutions is a serious incentive for the post soviet regimes to take preventive measures to protect and secure their governance. Moscow is also concerned about this possibility. It was clear that Georgia was considered as a promoter of revolutionary mood in the post soviet space. Therefore Moscow blames the Georgian authorities in undermining the situation in the post soviet space and in the North Caucasus in particular. Forming the TV channel PIK which transmits from Georgia in Russian language, the relaxed visa regime for Russian citizens and the alleged support of north Caucasus militants are all accusations which Moscow has labeled against Tbilisi.

Some Georgian analysts think that such allegations are made by Moscow to direct public opinion towards Georgia. In an attempt to justify any kind of possible aggression against Georgia, they will try to portray Georgia as an aggressor and potential threat.