Signs of snap elections

Usually in Georgia, the political processes start to gather speed in autumn and this year is no different as the opposition parties promise a “hot” autumn. However, some analysts anticipate that the major surprises will come from the ruling power and some are even predicting snap parliamentary elections sometimes this October.

Parliamentary elections are supposed to be held one year later in autumn 2012. Therefore the opposition has not yet started regrouping and campaigning for the next elections. However it appears as though the ruling administration has already moved into election mode. Some think that the authorities are taking preventative steps however others suggest that these are signs that snap elections are on the horizon and would come at a good time for the ruling authorities.

Some representatives of the country’s leadership mention that the 2012 Parliamentary elections in Georgia would be rather problematic because they coincide with the elections in Russia and the USA. Under such conditions Russia would be more aggressive towards Georgia whereas USA would be preoccupied with its own elections.

There are other arguments supporting snap elections including the element of surprise that might be very important as the opposition would be absolutely unprepared and incapable of launching a proper campaign. Moreover the opposition six and their insistence on the continuation of elections environment reform with the authorities has been suspended. The authorities have already finalized their negotiations and signed the agreement with two opposition entities Christian Democratic Movement and New Rights as well as some minor and insignificant groups.

The decision to hold snap elections might come unexpectedly at the beginning of the autumn session of the Parliament think some opposition members and analysts. The ruling power also has other options at its disposal. Analysts suggest that the authorities will use the same tactics during these elections as they used in previous ones. Of course they would mobilize their supporters which make up around 30-35% of the voters which is likely to be enough for victory as the opposition spectrum is dispersed and segmented, particularly after the May 26 events.

The Government has administrative resources, appropriate funding, state employees, law enforcement bodies, their relatives, party activists and many other political weapons in its election artillery. There is a big proportion of voters which does not like the ruling power but does not support the opposition either. So the arguments for snap elections are very convincing. It is clear that the ruling authorities are holding all the cards as the autumn approaches. You cannot be bored in Georgia – this country is always full of surprises.