Three years to legalize the crime

On August 26, 2008 Russia recognized as independent states its puppet regimes in Sokhumi and Tskhinvali. It is an illegal action according to the international legislation, because the Russian Federation is occupying these territories. The ethnic Georgian population of these regions has been kicked out. Ethnic cleansing has been carried out against the Georgian population in these territories. For these three years Russia has tried to convince the world to recognize these entities, but nobody wants to commit an illegal action, except Venezuela, Nicaragua, Nauru and Russia itself. Meanwhile Moscow tries subtly to integrate these territories into the Russian Federation.

The first term of the presidency of Dmitry Medvedev, the Russian president, expires next year and many think that the invasion of Georgia in August 2008 was the main “achievement“of Russia under his presidency. Of course, Medvedev tries to promote this “achievement “, as he attempts to secure a second term.

The international community however is negatively assessing Russia’s imperialistic attempts. All international organizations and all countries apart from the above mentioned ones acknowledge that the breakaway territories of Georgia are occupied by Russia and demand that they should de-occupy. However, these are only verbal statements, nobody in the world lifts a finger to oblige Russia to de occupy Georgia thereby giving Moscow confidence that sooner or later the world will accept this new reality.

At the third anniversary of the Russian invasion, either in Moscow or in Tskhinvali they are openly discussing the possibility of integrating this territory into the Russian Federation. This is not openly the case in regards of Abkhazia so far, but presumably, the scenario will be similar there.

There is an opinion in Georgia shared by some international analysts as well, that territorial problems in the future will hit Russia itself, as there are around 30 ethnical entities in the Russian Federation many of whom hope for independence from Russia. So far the Kremlin has managed to keep unity, using intensive military and police forces, but this will be difficult to maintain. Apart from the military arguments Russia has to deliver theoretical arguments if Abkhazia could be independent from Georgia, why could Chechnya or Tatarstan not be independent from Russia?

Of course, recognition of those entities creates serious problems for the Kremlin. Firstly in regard of its ally Armenia; if Tskhinvali or Sokhumi could be independent why can’t there be an independent Karabakh? This issue is now frozen, as Moscow does not want to spoil its relations with Azerbaijan. However, sooner or later, Moscow has to take a stance. The relations between Russia and Georgia are in deadlock, despite the attempts of Tbilisi to encourage Moscow towards dialogue, the Kremlin authorities repeat that they are not going to sit at the table with Georgia’s current leadership. There are several options here, the first is that the current leadership will prolong its position in Georgia for at least another four years, however even if the leadership is changed in Georgia, no Georgian will ever sign a document on the recognition of breakaway territories as independent states, so the dead lock will continue. Alternatively, there is yet another option that the ruling power in Russia might change, though not in the near future.