Autumn has come

Autumn traditionally is signified by the revival of political life in Georgia. Currently, different political parties are revealing their action plans for the near future. Mostly, autumn activities depend on the opposition; however, today there is serious discontent in the population because of the different issues particularly in the economy. It is unlikely that the situation will become tense and that the opposition will apply much genuine pressure, therefore, the key player today is still the ruling administration. In spring 2011 serious events took place in Georgia, as revolutionary oriented political forces tried and failed thus putting any other opposition parties off using the word 'revolution' again.

As for the other segment of the opposition which was oriented on amendments to the elections code, it has also had problems. It split into two parts , New Rights and Christian Democrats, as well as some minor parties agreed to the conditions put forward by the ruling party. On introducing certain amendments which are mainly cosmetic an agreement of sorts between the ruling party and the opposition was achieved and this was reported to the international community.

The part of the opposition that did not agree to sign the suggested version is now in a state of confusion. The ruling administration refuses to continue negotiations with them, as they state they have already achieved an agreement with the opposition, whereas the remaining six opposition entities want to convince the western allies to put pressure on the ruling administration to continue further negotiations and achieve some kind of real consensus. This however is unlikely to take place.

So, either this opposition has to completely ignore and boycott the elections, or participate in them, even though presumably they will have no chance. The leaders of the opposition six still make some optimistic statements, their current slogan has become, 'mobilization of a million voters', but it is not quite clear how they intend to do that. Meanwhile speculation is mounting as to when the parliamentary elections will be held as well, according to the timetable they are to be held in autumn 2012 , however many predict that the ruling authorities might call snap parliamentary elections later this autumn

It is possible that new political parties will emerge, as the current opposition political parties have lost the public trust. On October 2 there will be elections in Kakheti majoritarian district and this will be a dress rehearsal for opposition parties, but it is unlikely they will achieve any significant result. This is because today they can not produce one united candidate for the elections, so opposition support in votes will be divided, whereas the ruling power, with its administrative resources can consolidate with its majoritarian candidate.