Speculation over Snap Parliamentary Elections

The entrance into Georgian politics by the billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili created a real storm in the Georgian political arena. The Georgian tycoon plans to create a political party and win the forthcoming parliamentary elections. These elections are scheduled for autumn 2012 however expert analysts, politicians and the media started to speculate about the possibility of snap parliamentary elections. This follows from the idea that there is panic in the ruling administration due to Ivanishvili's emergence and with snap elections they will not give time to Ivanishvili to build up a head of steam and organize significant political power.

Ivanishvili's intentions have seriously scared the current leadership. Their reaction was immediate. Out of a kind-hearted, charitable, friendly, always-ready-to-assist, philanthropist Bidzina Ivanishvili has been transformed, according to the official media channels such as Imedi and Rustavi 2, into a horrible monster who wants to undermine political stability in Georgia and sell the country to the Russians. All of a sudden it appeared that he was not a Georgian citizen after all as President Saakashivli deprived him of Georgian citizenship. Some analysts even suggest that a court case could be drawn against him to prevent him from participation in elections. The Georgian ruling administration then realizes that attack is the best form of defense and started throwing everything but the kitchen sink at Ivanishvili. According to Georgian legislation it is not possible for a foreign citizen to finance or establish a political party, however all these steps will come up against the will of a billionaire determined to take the steps promised, establish a political party, finance it and win the elections.

Ivanishvili is highly respected in the population and any official action targeted against him will most likely garner sympathy for him. This gives ground for analysts to suggest that the ruling power might decide to hold a snap parliamentary election. Furthermore, if snap elections are called the new election code will not have been adopted or even if adopted it will not have come into force. There are many benefits then in a snap election for the ruling party. Official representatives so far deny such a possibility.

Some politicians however, even suggest that the decision on snap elections has already been taken by the ruling authorities and they will be held in January 2012. This scenario envisages some opposition parties in cahoots with the government to start protests on November 7 demanding the holding of snap parliamentary elections. As a response president Saakashvili will announce that he has taken into consideration opposition demands and will fix snap parliamentary elections which will be followed by snap presidential elections immediately afterwards. Meanwhile Ivanishvili and his team will not have enough time to create a party structure, mobilize supporters and create serious resistance. In such a scenario ruling party and some opposition forces sheltered under the ruling party's wing will be able to neutralize Ivanishvili and get rid of him.

But this is so far mere speculation. Meanwhile Ivanishvili is taking initial steps to create a political team and establish a political party. Whatever happens, it is clear that Ivanishvili has become a real challenge and a headache for the ruling authorities.