Will Russia attack Georgia again?

2012 is here and promises to be a very complicated year for Georgia not just from a domestic policy point of view but in terms of foreign policy as well. Some analysts are concerned about ongoing developments in Iran, according to certain opinions if conflict is unleashed between the West and Iran, Russia could use the momentum to launch a repeat attack on Georgia. Analysts suggest that in the event of conflict between Israel and Iran Georgia should remain neutral. However there are theories that in such a case Georgia would offer its airspace and airfields to western allies. Thus Georgia would join one side however there is a direct threat, according to some, lying to the north.

Georgian analysts and journalists keep asking questions about the possibility of a repeated Russian attack on Georgia. Some of this opinion is based on articles being spread by the Russian media.

The idea behind such speculation is that if the West got involved in confrontation with Iran there would be less focus on Georgia and its problems, and therefore this situation could be used to Russia’s advantage to play out its wicked plans.

Today Moscow has accumulated considerable amounts of weaponry in Georgia’s occupied territories. In the Gudauta military base in Abkhazia an additional 40 T90 tanks have been deployed and tanks are assault weapons. There are multiple Russian military regiments in different places in the north Caucasus. These units as well as the 102nd Russian military base in Armenia are in a status of standby. In the event of conflict between the West and Iran, Russia would need additional supplies to be deployed to its military base in Armenia. According to the opinion of Russian General Yuri Netkachov it is possible to organize a special transport corridor through the territory of Georgia to supply the Russian base in Armenia with materials, arms, ammunition and personnel. Western analysts also suggest that Georgia would be even more vulnerable if American support becomes diminished. In addition to these key points, there is another more personal factor concerning the characters of Russia and Georgia’s presidents; Russian President-to-be Putin has personal hate for Georgian President Saakashvili. These possible developments are being used by Georgian officials against opposition forces to discredit them by labelling them pro-Russian.

Therefore a threat from Russia, either directly or indirectly, will almost certainly have an effect on developments in the country’s internal politics and the forthcoming elections in Georgia.