Georgia’s fate linked to the US

The influential magazine Foreign Policy has published an article by famous American analyst Zbignev Bzhezinsky. The article talks about the diminishment of the global role of the USA in world politics. Georgia is also touched upon and Bzhezinsky names Georgia among eight countries which could directly suffer as a result of problems with the USA. Bzhezinsky was American President Carter’s adviser in National Security issues. It is known that he is planning to publish a book about different issues concerning the USA and world politics and presumably the published article reflects some ideas from the book. The general opinion of political analysts is that in the event of problems in the US the world will face much negative fallout. There is a threat according to analysts that such developments will facilitate authoritarianism, nationalism and different types of religious fundamentalism in different parts of the globe. Countries will be affected differently according to possible developments. For instance some think that in the event of problems arising concerning the USA, Russia would try to revive the former Soviet Union. Among the eight listed countries which could suffer along with the fall of US power are three post soviet nations: Georgia, Ukraine and Belarus. Bzhezinsky states that only the US can protect Georgia from Russian aggression and that this became evident after the war in 2008.

Since regaining its independence the USA has been permanently assisting the small country in the Caucasus. So far it has allotted more than USD 3 billion to Georgia, out of this amount 1 billion was allotted to Georgia after the Russian invasion in 2008.

In the event of problems and the inability of the US to further assist Georgia, the country will face a direct threat from Russia and this is heightened by the fact that Russia’s President-to-be Putin has personal hatred for Saakashvili. If Russia manages to exercise its influence over Georgia this could spread to Georgia’s neighbour Azerbaijan. As a result Moscow would manage to control the route of oil and gas transportation into Europe. In such a case the South Caucasus would cease to be an alternative oil supply route to Europe, and therefore Europe would be forced to follow Russian dictate.

Commentators on Bzhezinsky’s article say that this is only one possible scenario and that there are many different ones. But the fact that such a possibility even exists theoretically should make Georgia and other countries ready themselves for all eventualities.

Much will depend upon the developments of the upcoming US elections. Georgian analysts are very much concerned about what kind of position Georgia will be in if the Obama administration loses the elections and the republicans win.