Ruling government mention Russian threat…again

From time to time, the ruling administration of Georgia makes a statement about the threat coming from the Russian Federation. Officials highlight that the threats are multiple and of various origin. They are connected with direct aggression, as well as attempts of overthrowing the current government. This is done in the best Orwellian tradition.

Those statements are understood by the opposition as those that are targeted for internal consumption and as a means of discrediting opposition forces and a way to mobilize voters. Sometimes, the speculations on these threats become so boring that the media refuses to even discuss them. Currently, this kind of brainwashing attempt was made by the Georgian FM Grigol Vashadze. Nobody doubts that the threat exists– this is a general aspect of the imperialistic character of Russia and of course with the background of the 2008 Russian occupation of Georgia.

Vashadze lays out several arguments to prove his position. First, Russia does not make commitments on the non-use of force against Georgia. Constant military rhetoric by Russian officials exists on different levels against Georgia. In September-October 2012, the Russian Federation plans to carry out a full-scale military training in the North Caucasus areas. It also plans to hold military training at its military base deployed in Armenia. The situation is further aggravated with the current tension between the West and Iran. Possible military confrontation with Iran might be used as a reason for starting aggressive military action against Georgia, Vashadze believes.

Again nothing new is said on this front. This kind of scenario has been discussed multiple times by several analysts. Can Georgia protect itself from such developments and how? This is the question of vital importance. First of all, Georgia does not have quantity or quality of weapons to protect the country. The 2008 Russian aggression showed that Georgia could not protect itself from Russian attacks from the air. Georgians speak about the reservists, but their full level of training disorganization and failure in managing this system became evident in 2008 and it is unlikely that this resistance would have any efficiency. Vashadze mentioned that in this regard, Georgia hopes to avoid Russian aggression with the help of Western allies and therefore, the Georgian side permanently shares their concerns. According to Vashadze, Russian aggression might not stop in regards of only Georgia and it might try to involve Azerbaijan in its strategy. According to the minister, Russia is ready for direct aggression, but meanwhile will try to bring pro Russian elements into the pro Russian government. Here Vashadze moves into the internal pre election environment. Georgian officials label the Georgian Dream coalition and its leader as a pro-Russian force. This happens despite the fact that Ivanishvili and his supporters have declared openly multiple times that they are committed to an orientation towards the West and NATO integration, whereas attempts to arrange dialogue with Russia are also included in their strategy. The opposition tries to accuse the ruling power of pro Russian moves by pointing out that the current administration established very tense economic links with Russia. Under such circumstances, it has become very difficult to identify what the real threat is and who the pro- Russian forces are and how they should behave.