Prospects of three forces in the parliament

Soon after NDI published its survey results, another survey was carried out by IRI. Overall, the outcome of both surveys was proved to be quite satisfying for the ruling party. The results of both surveys were very similar. In short, according to data gathered by both NGOs, the three major Georgian parties will be well-represented in the next Georgian parliament.

However, the Georgian Dream coalition, the main opposition force in this year’s elections, does not accept results of either of the polls. They do admit that if the ruling administration conducts the elections according to its rules of the game, the results of the elections will not be much different from the polling results. IRI polling showed the National Movement leading by 43%; the Georgian Dream with 24% and the Christian Democrats with 7%. NDI showed the ruling party 36%; the Georgian Dream 18% and the Christian Democrats 3%. Other opposition parties such as New Rights and the National Democrats did not manage to qualify at all. Representatives of ruling national movement are quite happy with the results. They accept this type of configuration, as when they have a majority in the parliament they will be able to form a government– if there is coalition they can get along with Christian Democrats.

The Christian Democrats also expressed their satisfaction confirming that they would accept the role of third power in the parliament. CDM claims that they are real opposition.

Although the main opposition force states that it does not trust these polls, one could still draw some conclusions about the results. For instance, similar polling carried out several months ago showed that the current results confirm certain tendencies. For example– the National Movement is starting to lose its position, whereas the Georgian Dream’s support is increasing. However, if the tendency continues, the Christian Democrats may not be able to overcome the 5% barrier. This would be a pity, because the more parties that are represented in the parliament, the better it is.

Some political figures have made statements regarding the results. For instance, laborers are saying that the Georgian Dream’s chances of winning the elections are zero. They also suggest that there will be a deal between the Georgian Dream and the National Movement and the latter will allow the Georgian Dream into parliament by 20%. Some analysts suggest that the Georgian Dream should conduct its own polling parallel to the NDI and IRI.

There is another opinion that after entering parliament, the Georgian Dream will be divided which will give much advantage to the ruling party. The closer we come to the elections, the more intriguing the situation becomes in Georgia.