Snap parliamentary elections a gamble for Saakashvili and UNM

The October 1, 2012, Parliamentary Election created a bicameral legislative body. So, for the next four years only the Georgian Dream coalition and the United National Movement (UNM) will be represented in the parliament. However, the ruling party does not have a constitutional majority and therefore it cannot adopt important decisions without the support of the UNM.

This kind of a situation is considered by the parties outside the parliament as unfair and some of the political forces are very much interested in holding snap parliamentary elections where they hope to qualify for the parliament.

One opposition leader, Nino Burjanadze, thinks that in reality the UNM would not have received more than 20% of the votes and that the other 20% was achieved as a result of illegal maneuvers.

Many Georgian analysts suggest that Mikheil Saakashvili will not discharge the parliament because doing so via snap elections might prove to be disastrous for the UNM. Some even say that the party would not even overcome the 5% barrier necessary for parliamentary representation. Leader of the Georgian Dream coalition, Prime Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili, keeps repeating and inviting Saakashvili to hold new parliamentary elections.

As for the current situation in the parliament, the UNM feels very comfortable and creates the illusion that no serious decisions can be taken by MPs without their support and therefore, highlights the team’s significance.

Meanwhile, in the Georgian Dream coalition, which consists of several political teams, the unity has been maintained, although, it is visible that some parties inside the coalition are in better position than others.

In the case of snap parliamentary elections, the spectrum of the different parties represented in the parliament will be diversified. Presumably, Burjanadze’s Democratic Movement, Shalva Natelashvili’s Labor Party and possibly even Kakha Kukava’s Free Georgia will try to enter the parliament. It will be a challenge for the Christian-Democrats, National Democrats and New Rights. Certain pro-Russian forces might also try their hand in parliament.

So, the situation is as such: in the case of snap parliamentary elections, the Georgian Dream will continue domineering, but presumably, new players will appear in the field. Thus, the month of April will be decisive for acting President Saakashvili while he considers whether to gamble again and try to receive more parliamentary seats or cling to whatever his party has achieved up to this point.