Controversy within the Georgian Dream

The withdrawal of Koba Davitashvili from the parliamentary majority became a topic for speculation this past weekend. The oppositional United National Movement (UNM) members commented with satisfaction that the disintegration of the Georgian Dream has started.

The coalition itself, however, can see nothing alarming in Davitashvili’s decision and explains everything with the general behavior of Davitashvili throughout his political career.

Davitashvili held a press conference on August 2nd where he announced his decision about leaving the Georgian Dream.

According to him, the court decision that did not find the former interior minister Bacho Akhalaia guilty of certain crimes and the reaction of the coalition over this fact, was the last straw for his tolerance. According to him, the population had expected that the coalition would establish the restoration of justice whereas the government is involved in the mode of cohabitation and other similar concessions.

The leaders of the Georgian Dream meanwhile comment that Davitashvili’s step was not a surprise for him at all; reminding that during his political career Davitashvili had changed parties many times.

The leader of the parliamentary majority, Davit Saganelidze, said Davitashvili is not a team-player, while he rather preferred to gain personal popularity instead. He also said that Davitashvili used to initiate such bills that had not been seriously considered and discussed with other team members.

Overall, the Georgian Dream does not consider Davitashvili’s step to be a great loss. They also evaluate his chances to become the president of Georgia as unrealistic.

The opposition meanwhile has hailed this step, predicting the collapse of the coalition. This fact created much agitation within the political ranks. Analysts suggest different scenarios of development. The most radical is the possibility of Prime Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili’s resignation from politics, followed by the disintegration of the entire coalition. Some analysts go further and think that Ivanishvili will definitely resign before the New Year. In supporting such a position, they point at the amendments that effectively decrease the powers and the rights of the future PM.

Some analysts suggest that under the circumstances, Ivanishvili will not leave the PM position and will continue to consolidate different political forces around the coalition.

Most of the analysts agree that Davitashvili’s chances to become president are low.

This way or another, one thing is clear, it is unlikely that the coalition will manage to accumulate enough votes in the parliament to secure the constitutional majority before the presidential elections scheduled on October 27, 2013.

However, this is Georgia and very often things here are unpredictable; anything can happen.