Unification of the two Ossetias puts pressure on Georgia

Recent talk of the unification of North and South Ossetia has been exploited by the politicians in the Tskhinvali region. There is the idea to hold a referendum, although not everybody in the Tskhinvali region shares this idea - in particular, the Tskhinvali region administration, as some Russian political analysts think this option is impossible. However, there is the opinion that this speculation started at the request of the Kremlin as a form of putting pressure on Tbilisi.

In South Ossetia the political party Edynaya Ossetia (United Ossetia) is initiating holding a referendum over joining the Russian Federation. The leaders of this party submitted an application to the de facto President Leonid Tibilov on the possibility of holding a referendum this summer.

The question should be of this content: do you see South and North Ossetia as a united part of the Russian Federation? It was also suggested to hold a plebiscite instead of a referendum. The idea will be discussed at the conference scheduled in February 2014 in Tskhinvali where well known public and political figures of North and South Ossetia will participate.

De facto leaders of the Tskhinvali regime immediately distanced themselves form this initiative, saying that no referendum is planned to be held whatsoever. According to this opinion, this was the private initiative of one of the non-parliamentary parties.

The Ambassador of South Ossetia to the Russian Federation Dmitry Medoyev said it was a very popular topic to gain supporters before the parliamentary elections. According to Medoyev, the constitution of South Ossetia stipulates that it is an independent country and this is recognized by the Russian Federation.

Russian political analysts also do not view this idea positively. Most think that this is against Russian interests. Some analysts suggest the possibility that the South Ossetian side can hold a referendum and receive positive respond, but this will yield no real results.

There is an opinion among the Russian analysts that the unification of the South Ossetia with the Russian Federation might become possible if Kosovo unifies with Albania. Until this is the case, South Ossetia, Kosovo, Karabakh and such non-recognized territories will exist as they are now.

Georgian analysts meanwhile think that the administration of the Russian Federation is not at all interested in taking South Ossetia into the Russian Federation. At first it will further increase a bad opinion about Russia’s imperialistic claims and will create additional headaches for Moscow. This will be a political hara-kiri and will further isolate Russia from the civilized world.