Analysts: Dark days ahead for Ukraine

Analysts and politicians have speculated recently that after the Sochi Olympic Games, Russia will begin interfering in the events ongoing in Ukraine.

The West will appear at the crossroads: either it will continue expressing its deep concern as it did in 2008 when Russia attacked Georgia, or it will have to take some serious steps to counteract Russia’s neo-imperialistic ambitions.

There is no doubt that the Ukrainian events are among the top news in world politics. Everybody agrees that the unrest cannot continue for long, and that eventually the Ukrainian President will resort to more violent tactics to crackdown on the civil unrest.

Presumably, he will increase the pressure on the opposition and the Russian Federation will more than likely assist him.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov criticized the West for supporting the Ukrainian opposition during the recent Munich security conference. This can be understood as Russia’s determination not to release Ukraine from its influence.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk spoke with EU leaders about the developments of such a “black” scenario. He in particular, warned the West that Moscow might actively become involved in Kiev’s domestic affairs.

In addition, there is the risk that the conflict could spread in the country. It is possible that there could be refugees, who would likely move to Poland. It is also possible that in the case that the opposition achieves a victory in Ukraine, Russia may cut-off the supply of natural gas to the Europe.

This scenario has been highly speculated about in both Ukraine and Russia. Leader of the Russian Liberal Democratic Party Vladimir Zhirinovsky openly announced that when the Sochi Olympic Games come to an end, the crisis in Ukraine and the activities of the opposition will be over. Very often Zhirinovsky acts as the herald for Moscow’s plans.

Ukrainian conflict analyst Grigory Perepelitsa provides his interpretation of the possible developments in the country. According to him, Russian Special Forces might undermine the situation in the conflict zones of neighboring countries, which would trigger unrest and then send their military forces into the area.

Moscow has done the same in the Georgian territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

For the time being, the events are unfolding slowly in Ukraine, but these developments will be accelerated after the Olympics.

Former adviser to the Russian President Andrey Ilarionov also stated that Moscow is preparing a plan to split Ukraine. In particular, Ilarionov suggested four possible scenarios:

1. Establish control over Ukraine using a person who is respected in the country. However, this is unlikely to happen;

2. Federalization or con-federalization of Ukraine;

3. Establishment of Russian control over certain territories of Ukraine such as Crimea, the Kharkov region and the cities of Odessa, Nikolaev, Lugansk, and Donetsk;

4. Russia’s claim will touch only Sevastopol where the Russian Black Sea flotilla is stationed.

Ilarionov cited the developments in Georgia in August 2008 when Russia attacked Georgia and occupied its territories. The Beijing Olympic Games were underway at the time. Ilarionov announced that the moves for such developments are already taking place and that special task forces are proliferating into Ukraine.

Of course it is clear that Ukraine is not Georgia or Kosovo. It is a huge country and a more sophisticated approach will be used against it.

Either way, the West’s position will be of the highest importance for stopping Russia from carrying out its aggressive plans.