Possible developments in Ukraine

For the last several months political analysts, journalists and politicians predicted various developments for the events going on in Ukraine.

While the West was repeatedly expressing its deep concern, man of action – Russian President Vladimir Putin– created a “new reality” in Ukraine by snatching the Ukrainian territory of Crimea in an attempt at eventually uniting it with Russia.

Will the West be able to stop Russian imperialism or will it accept this reality like it accepted the occupation of Georgian territories? This will all become clear in the near future.

In 1954, Soviet leader Nikita Khrushov gave Crimea to Ukraine, separating it from Russia. Of course, Khrushov could not have predicted that in less than 40 years the Soviet Union would collapse.

During the soviet system, the soviet republics were just formalities. So, in 1954, nobody paid much attention to the possible complications. However, the Soviet Union collapsed and multiple states emerged in its place. Therefore, the Russian navy, which has been stationed in Sevastopol, Crimea, appeared on the territory of a neighboring country. Russia had to agree with the fact that it would maintain its navy in Sevastopol, and pay Ukraine to do it.

Ukraine’s leadership under Victor Yanukovich’s governance had created favorable conditions for the Russian navy, but the recent developments on the Euro Maidan in Kiev forced Yanukovich to flee the country. Russia decided to act…

As many had predicted, Russia was waiting for the end of the Sochi Olympic Games. And indeed, just a couple of days later, the Kremlin received endorsement of its claims over Crimea, which allowed Russian troops to enter the sovereign territory of another country.

In fact, Russia already has enough troops in Crimea to occupy the whole territory. This is exemplified by the Russian troops who keep taking different strategic objects including Ukrainian military bases in Crimea.

Russia is also distributing Russian passports to the Crimean population.

Of course, Ukraine cannot oppose Russia’s military machine. Moscow can always send additional troops.

Quite often, commentators point-out the Georgian case and its breakaway regions of Abkhazia and Tskhinvali when talking about the events transpiring in Ukraine.

At the time, the West did very little to protect Georgia. The West was limited to its expression of concern. In addition, the conduct of the Georgian leadership in 2008 gave Moscow certain advantages.

After the Russian aggression against Georgia, some politicians around the world warned the rest of the world that if Russia had not stopped, it could have led to other steps.

However, no substantial steps have been made against the imperialistic Russia so far with regard to Georgia.

Some analysts think that Ukraine is a different case, as it is the biggest country in Europe with several million in population. Hopefully the West will not abandon Ukraine.

There is another stake on the table as well - now when the former Ukrainian president has left, the new administration will presumably turn back towards EU membership. This will further irritate Russia.

Georgia, meanwhile, is preparing to sign the EU association membership agreement and dreams about receiving the membership action plan (MAP) from NATO. Russia is absolutely against this. So, much in Georgia’s fate depends on the behavior of the western countries with regard to Ukraine and Russia.