Ukraine faces second threat of occupation

It looks like Russia is not limiting itself by only occupying Crimea. It is trying to get its hands on other parts of Ukraine too. It has now begun launching subversive activities against the eastern and southern parts of Ukraine.

Eastern Ukraine contains a large Russian-speaking population, and this creates fruitful grounds for Russian President Vladimir Putin’s military aggression. The Kremlin is ready to undergo the second phase in the annexation of these territories. It is using the distribution of Russian passports, and sending Russian volunteers, and instructors to the region in order to undermine the situation there.

The West has failed to provide an adequate deterrent to stop Moscow so far.

Some political pundits believe that this May will be the most dangerous with regard to further developments between Russia and Ukraine.

On May 25, Ukraine holds presidential elections. There is also talk in Kyiv about holding snap parliamentary elections as well.

Military experts point out that Ukraine’s antiquated army cannot effectively protect itself against Russia, saying that Kyiv would fall after only a few days in any war with Moscow.

The experts of the Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies of the United Kingdom suggest that four possible scenarios could play-out in Ukraine.

1. The first scenario envisages a demonstration of Russia’s military power, which will force Kyiv and the world community to accept Crimea’s annexation with no further military action by Russia.

2. The second scenario envisages mass unrest in the southeast regions of Ukraine and the creation of a corridor from Russia to Crimea through the Ukrainian territories of Donetsk, Zaporozhye and Kherson. This will take place via the annexation of these territories by Moscow.

3. The third scenario envisions the division of Ukraine in two parts: the south and eastern parts of Ukraine inhabited by the Russian-speaking population will join the Russian Federation and the rest being a part of Ukraine.

4. The fourth scenario entails the unification of Crimea to the Moldovan Pridnestrovie region, thus creating a link with Russia. This would be a narrow corridor, but would decide the fate of the Pridnestrovie region of Moldova to join the Russian Federation.

Such developments will completely change the European map – in particular the Black Sea region– and will create a serious challenge to the European order and will challenge NATO at the same time.

What is and will be decided by Putin and his military advisers is not clear yet. But it will become clear soon. Will Moscow limit itself with its aggression against Ukraine only? Or will it attack Moldova and Georgia (again) as well? Will Moscow try to use Georgia as a corridor to Armenia and Iran? All this depends on the activities of the EU, the US and NATO.