MAP unlikely for Georgia

Even the most optimistic analysts in Georgia are frustrated by the information spread by Reuters several days ago stating that Georgia should not expect to receive MAP at the NATO Wales summit in September. Instead, Georgia will be granted a reinforced collaboration package. Some years ago, Georgia received something “better than MAP” (this has become a matter of irony in Georgia). Some analysts suggest that this is a game to please Georgia and at the same time, not irritate Russia.

The country has been waiting for MAP since 2007. Not granting MAP to Georgia in 2008 caused serious consequences. Russia provoked the previous government, and that resulted in losing 20% of Georgian territory. NATO has temporally suspended its relations with Russia. However, it is not a final decision.

Russia’s latest aggressive actions have been focused Ukraine, and NATO generals seem scared by Russia’s unpredictable and aggressive activities. Meanwhile, Georgia is doing its best to meet the criteria demanded by the alliance in order to receive MAP.

Opinion is split among the alliance members. According to unofficial sources, out of 28 countries, around twelve are against granting MAP to Georgia. A consensus in required for making any decision in the alliance. The most powerful countries that are against the move to advance Georgia’s NATO position are Germany and France.

“Some allies question whether NATO - whose limited military presence in Eastern Europe has been exposed by the Ukraine crisis - could credibly extend its security guarantee to Georgia, with its two Russian-backed breakaway regions. The hawks on the issue are the former Soviet republics in the Baltics and some other eastern European countries. They argue that NATO should send a tough message to Russia by granting Georgia MAP,” the article reads.

Others complain that not granting MAP to Georgia will further increase Russia’s claims to make decisions on who will be in the alliance and who will not… That is why Georgia will be offered a reinforced partnership package.

The current Georgian government will certainly advertise such steps as another success. However, ordinary people in Georgia will be frustrated. Increased partnership basically means the same box with different wrapping.

This is just a play of words and could be exercised forever. To put the situation into simple terms, Georgia needs solid guarantees from NATO for its security, as Russia is a permanent military threat. Unfortunately, more and more people are skeptically watching the country’s NATO prospects. More and more are becoming convinced Georgia’s quest for NATO is a lost cause.