Snap parliamentary elections unlikely

From time to time, there is talk about the possibility of Georgia holding snap elections. After the parliamentary elections of 2012, the opposition parties that failed to gain enough votes started discussing snap elections. The Georgian Dream coalition rejected the possibility and stressed that there will not be any elections before 2016.

Nevertheless, today’s ridiculous confrontations between the prime minister and the president might encourage such elections, as the elections might be a lever for overcoming gridlock in the current government.

After the overwhelming victory in the 2014 local elections, snap elections could not be considered. However, all of sudden, the Georgian Dream faces a serious challenge – confrontation and misunderstanding between two leading figures in the country.

Both, the president and the prime minister exclude any private background to the confrontation, claiming that their approaches meet the constitution. They might be right, as the current constitution fails to provide clear boundaries between the rights of the state’s leading political figures.

The constitutional commission is making a new draft of the constitution, but it would be very hard to introduce amendments or change the constitution. The Georgian Dream coalition lacks a constitutional majority in the legislative body and even in the case of finding some solution over the issue, the opposition United National Movement appears not to support it.

In the current circumstances, the most realistic move will be holding snap parliamentary elections, where the Georgian Dream would need to collect ? of seats in parliament before making amendments to the constitution or other laws.

Snap parliamentary elections, however, do not guarantee the victory with ? seats of the GD, as the party is currently facing serious problems. Apart from the confrontation between the president and the prime minister, there was a controversy within the Adjara local government that resulted in the dismissal of Vice Speaker Murman Dumbadze from the party. There are multiple socioeconomic problems and decreased enthusiasm among people to participate in the elections or vote for the coalition. Neither the Georgian Dream coalition nor the other political actors in Georgia are ready for new elections. Many analysts discuss the possibility of a third political party emerging in the country, but there is nobody on the horizon thus far. If snap elections are still held, political parties in parliament will be re-distributed among smaller parties and the configuration of political parties will be eclectic.