Does Daesh still pose a threat?

The Islamic State has presented a global threat for the past few years. The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant is officially known as the Islamic State (IS) and by its Arabic language acronym Daesh. The name has been used by the Georgian Government, as well as several other countries since the organization severely despises it. While "Daesh" has no other meaning in Arabic, it is very similar to the Arabic word Daes, meaning "one who crushes (or tramples down) something underfoot." We shall also refer to the militant group and formerly unrecognized proto-state as Daesh.

After gaining global notoriety in 2014, Daesh terrorized much of the Middle East, with their influence and the number of sympathizers spanning all across the globe, including Georgia.

On December 19, 2018, President Donald Trump announced that the U.S. military would withdraw the approximately 2,200 U.S. troops stationed in Syria.

American Special Operations forces inside Syria coordinate with local opposition fighters called the Syrian Democratic Forces, an alliance of mostly Kurdish and Arab fighters. U.S. forces train and advise the group. On March 23, 2019, the abovementioned armed forces expelled Daesh from the last remnant of the group’s territory in the region - a 3.6-square-kilometers village of Baghuz, Syria.

At its peak four years ago, Daesh ruled a chunk of territory the size of Britain and controlled the lives of up to 12 million people.

“To all of the young people on the internet believing in ISIS’s propaganda, you will be dead if you join. Think instead about having a great life,” said Donald Trump, “While on occasion these cowards will resurface, they have lost all prestige and power. They are losers and will always be losers.”

The world was quick to celebrate the alleged defeat of the Caliphate, but many international organizations and security experts are warning that the celebration might be premature.

The United Nations Secretary-General, Antonio Guterres, published his eighth report on Daesh earlier this year. According to the report, Daesh “is in a phase of transition, adaptation and consolidation.”

Even though Daesh doesn’t control the territory it once did, its power never lied in the territorial possession, but in its global network of terrorist. Therefore, even with its territory lost, Daesh still poses a paramount threat to international peace and security.

The UNSC reports that “[if Daesh] regains access to permissive space and reinvests in external operational planning, a resurgence of directed attacks should be anticipated.” The same concerned has been addressed in the quarterly report (Oct-Dec 2018) of the US Department of Defense Inspector General. The report reads that without counterterrorism pressure in Syria, Daesh “Could Likely Resurge Within Six to Twelve Months.”

The evolving nature of Daesh is also considered in Georgia’s National Counterterrorism Strategy.

According to the strategy, conducting terrorist acts outside of the conflict zone became the primary tool for Daesh. “The organization tries to radicalize and get support from people all across the world using the internet and the social media” – reads the strategy. It is also noted that in the previous years, Daesh called its sympathizers to join their ranks in Syria and Iraq. Now the terrorist organization, using the internet, urges radicalized people to carry out terrorist attacks on the communities in which they live.

According to the annual report published by the State Security Service of Georgia (SSS), there have been significant steps taken towards preventing Georgian citizens from joining the ranks of Daesh. In 2018, several Georgian citizens were killed in the armed conflict in Syria and Iraq. More than 20 were fighting in the ranks of the terrorist organization. According to the report, SSS continued their efforts to reduce risks related to the possible return of the aforementioned citizens to Georgia.

It is noteworthy, that thanks to the workings of the SSS and other governmental institutions there had been no recorded instances of Georgian citizens traveling to Syria and Iraq.

Even though Daesh doesn’t control the vast territory, it once did, and despite the assumed defeat of the terrorist organization, it is evident that it still holds significant tools that are subject of concern for the governmental bodies and international organizations.