10 days after Putin’s ban on flights – what has changed?

It’s been 10 days since President Putin’s order to ban direct flights between Georgia and Russia came into force. Officials around the world made statements regarding the matter, including the US’s message towards the Russian Federation, which urges Russia to restore the flights between the countries.

But it is unlike Russia to listen to any of the international actors, especially American officials. For Georgia, it’s a show of the US’s unwavering support, but for Russia, it’s just another sentence that won’t make any difference.

It is a well-known fact that the Georgian economy relies heavily on tourism; in 2018, Georgia’s tourism industry was 7.6% of the GDP.

Putin’s decision was made public after the events of June 20, which followed Russian MP’s visit to Georgia, who somehow ended up sitting in the chair of the Speaker of the Georgian Parliament.

The incident was followed by mass protests, which began immediately after the Russian MP started speaking from the Speaker’s chair. The day of protest was long, but the night lasted even longer – with the special forces dispersing the protesters after an attempt to storm the parliament building.

After the ban, Georgian activists started to encourage people around the world to visit Georgia. The initiative started in the Social Media, with a Facebook group called ‘Spend your Summer in Georgia,’ attracting over 100,000 members within its first 48 hours.

Last year, in 2018, the number of Russian tourists visiting Georgia was as high as 1.4 million people. Spend Your Summer in Georgia is the initiative that tries to ‘replace’ all those tourists from different parts of the world.

A few weeks ago, the Minister of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia, Natia Turnava held a meeting in the region of Kakheti, where she talked about the ways that the country can deal with the loss of Russian tourists.

As she said, it is essential to try to maintain the flow of tourists from Russia, and to ensure this, “accurate information should be provided for the tourists. Georgia is a safe country, no one in under threat here.”

Member of the Russian Opposition, Alexei Navalny, who was arrested several times in Russia because of protests, criticized Putin immediately after his decision was announced.

“Putin has decided to punish Georgia because of the protests in the country. Now, many Russians will not be able to visit Georgia and have a good vacation at an affordable price,” he said.

Were protests in the tiny country of Georgia really that important for the president of the biggest country in the world? Putin is well aware that the Georgian economy would be affected by his decision, but he probably didn’t foresee the negative consequences it would have for his own country.

Other than the fact that some Russian tourists won’t be able to see the beautiful city of Batumi, or walk the lit-up streets of Tbilisi, or to take a sip of Georgian wine in a hot summer day, the decision will hit the Russian economy.

According to Veritas Global, the organization that provides economics and strategy advisory services worldwide, ban will have negative consequences for both countries, but Russian airlines will be worst impacted and they stand to lose $225 million in revenue per year, while Georgian airlines will face revenue losses of $61.3 million.

Of course, Russian leaders didn’t spare efforts to make Georgians think that they lost “the good thing.” Few days after the announcement of the decision, Grigory Karasin, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Russia said that “Russia was ready to abolish visa regime for Georgia, but the issue was postponed.”

“We have made the visa regime more liberal, any citizen of Russia can invite any people from Georgia to come and visit the country. The number of Georgian citizens visiting Russia is growing every year, and we were ready to go further,” said Karasin in his interview with the Kommersant on July 2.

According to the information of the Russian Foreign Ministry, if the situation in Georgia gets better, “if they hate towards Russians stop, if Georgia will guarantee the security of our citizens, we will be able to talk about the restoration of the flights between the countries.”

It should be noted that there has not been any case of discrimination against Russian citizens in Georgia in a very long time. In reality, Georgian’s have nothing against Russian tourists. They have visited Georgia for centuries, and nobody thinks that it will change. The fact that Russian officials say that their citizens are not safe in one of the safest countries in the region only serves their narrow political interests and have nothing to do with the objective reality.