Optimism regarding EU membership is decreasing in Georgia – CRRC

The Government has a declared goal of joining the European Union (EU) when the country is ready for it, even though it’s not a candidate to join at the time.

According to the Knowledge of and Attitudes towards the EU in Georgia survey (EU Survey) CRRC-Georgia conducted in spring 2019 for Europe Foundation, if a referendum is held tomorrow, 71 percent of Georgia's population will vote for EU membership. Only 10% would vote against it and 7% would not vote at all.

While there is clearly a high level of support for EU membership, people are increasingly skeptical about how long it will take Georgia to join.

Since 2009, the EU Survey has asked respondents, “When will Georgia join the EU, in 5 years or less, in 6-10 years, in more than 10 years, or never?”

The answer to the question has dropped by half – respondents who expect Georgia will join the EU in five years or less have plummeted from 30% in 2009 to 15% in 2019.

In addition, the percentage of respondents who expect Georgia will join the EU in more than 10 years and those who believe Georgia will never join the EU rose from 10% in 2009 to 19% in 2019 and 1% in 2009 to 11% in 2019, respectively.

Accordingly, the data suggests that optimism is on the significant decline in this issue.

Further analysis of the 2019 EU survey was conducted to understand the current situation better. The analyzes show that sex, age, type of settlement, and level of education are linked to the outlook of people.

Generally, people older than 55 are less likely to be optimistic regarding Georgia joining the EU than people from 18 to 35 years old. Female respondents are less pessimistic compared to male respondents.

“Aside from demographics, party preferences could also reasonably be tied to people’s expectations as positive assessments about a number of issues are tied to whether or not people support the party in power,” says CRRC.

The data shows that people who report not knowing or refuse to answer the question about the party closest to them are less optimistic than the ruling Georgian Dream supporters. United National Movement, Alliance of Patriots supporters, and supporters of no party are also more pessimistic than GD supporters.

The support of the EU among the Georgian population has also suffered, however it still remains significantly high.

Back in 2014, nearly 60 percent of Georgians believed that the country should join the European Union (EU) rather than the Eurasian Union, established by Russia to garner and regain influence over post-Soviet countries, according to the National Democratic Institute (NDI) poll.

After 2014, according to the same annual poll, the support has been increasing and eventually reached 83% in 2018.

Compared to the 2018 results, the May 20, 2019 results showed that the support for EU membership decreased with 6 percent from 83% to 77%.

It is understandable that despite the declared aspirations, the Government’s actions are not in line with their proclaimed outlook. With the quality of democracy and public trust in the Government decreasing, it is not hard to understand where the pessimistic attitude is stemming from, especially from those who don’t support the ruling team.

Recently former EU Ambassador to Georgia Denis Corboy and former US Ambassadors to Georgia William Courtney and Kenneth Yalowitz published a joint op-ed in the US publication The National Interest, which states that “a flawed presidential election, use of force against protesters, and political manipulations by the secretive billionaire who heads the ruling Georgian Dream Party have strained public confidence and brought mounting public protests.”

The three experts pinpoint some of the major factors that have resulted in unrest and democratic backsliding. According to them, one of the factors is the role of Bidzina Ivanishvili, who “pulls strings behind the scene, rendering some promising leaders powerless. Ministers come and go mainly at his whim. Most have a security background or are part of Ivanishvili’s trusted inner circle.”

Another factor, according to the article is a broken promise to hold the 2020 parliamentary elections using the proportional system, instead of mixed.

Economic frustrations are the third factor, say the three experts. “Despite robust economic growth averaging 4.5 percent per year over the past decade, income inequality remains high,” the article reads. Anaklia deep-sea port project coming to a halt has also contributed to that and the perceptions that the country is going in the wrong direction have climbed, they state.

“Georgia has come a long way toward creating a modern democratic state. Next year it has an opportunity to renew its democratic credentials by conducting a free and fair elections. This could reduce any risk of decline toward an illiberal political system,” concludes the article.

Coming from the long-term supporters of Georgia who are familiar with the country, this piece should serve as a wake-up call for the public officials to take positive measures towards trying to rebuild the public trust they’ve lost gradually, agreeing to deliver on their promise of proportional electoral system for 2020 elections would be the first step.