Misunderstanding in Georgian Parliament

Georgia will hold parliamentary elections in late October 2020. However, much remains unclear about the election. It is unknown whether the constitutional changes will be implemented, it is unclear what the composition of the government will be before the elections and what the Georgian Dream's electoral list will be, or how long the opposition will remain united and what it will be able to agree on before the election.

The public hearing of the constitutional amendments began on June 4th, and the discussion will continue in the second half of June but the future of the constitutional amendments is still unclear. The United Opposition also said it would not support constitutional changes without releasing Giorgi Rurua from prison. The government is not going to do that. Both sides blame each other for the possible disruption of the March 8th agreement.

Against the background of these mutual accusations, it is noted that the government can make constitutional changes in case of mobilization of its own parliamentary deputies and the votes of independent parliamentarians. In the current situation, the issue of changes in the parliament may be raised in such a way that the results of the voting are still unclear.

The issue of constitutional changes, despite its importance, was covered by the Prime Minister's topic last week. Giorgi Gakharia, the head of the Georgian government, visited the parliament twice in a row - once presenting a government report and the second time - at the request of the opposition. An ordinary citizen, watching the noisy argument between Gakharia and the opposition, remembers the insulting statements and the two main messages: "Everything is going well," says Gakharia, “Everything is going South,” replied the opposition.

Suddenly, on June 3rd, information was spread about Gakharia's expected resignation in the coming days. According to backstage reports, Bidzina Ivanishvili, a leader in the shadow of the current government, has decided that Gakharia should resign (according to one version recently, according to another- a few months ago, before the outbreak of the Coronavirus epidemic.) Several possible candidates for the post of the Prime Minister have also been nominated.

Prior to the announcement of Gakharia's resignation, it was rumored that Gakharia would join the opposition before the election and form his own political party. If Gakharia is really released from power and he stays in politics, he will really be able to gain the support of a certain segment of the electorate, presumably the people who are demanding a tougher policy towards the United National Movement.

Last week, the issue of the Prime Minister was followed by great excitement among the opposition, but Giorgi Gakharia had nothing to do with it. The case concerned a possible prime ministerial candidate for the opposition if he wins the election. One of the opposition politicians named Giorgi Vashadze, which was followed by statements from several parties in the United Opposition that Giorgi Vashadze would not be considered a candidate for the post of Prime Minister.The statements were as harsh as if they had already won the election and really needed to elect a new prime minister. This dispute showed the weakness of the unity of the opposition.

It seems that the opposition will not be able to reach an agreement on the common candidates of the MPs. This topic was actively discussed last week. Some parties, such as Lelo, have said they will field candidates in all majoritarian constituencies, while others have called on the United National Movement and European Georgia to be more lenient with small parties and support their proposals in majoritarian constituencies. Some urge that if not in all constituencies, Tbilisi may still agree on common candidates. So far, the opposition has agreed on only one thing - they will support the opposition candidates in the second round. But first the case must go to the second round.

The nomination of many candidates by the opposition in the majoritarian constituencies gives a great advantage to the candidate of the government, because in his favor important finances and the entire administrative resource will be mobilised. Against the backdrop of the pre-election unrest, the government has made major macroeconomic predictions for parliament. It forecasts the country's economy to shrink by 4%, while the Georgian government's debt to GDP ratio will reach 58% by 2020 (the allowable limit is 60%), but it promises to be reduced to 54.5%.In 2020, the government will receive a foreign debt of 7.1 billion GEL, and the total foreign debt will reach a historical maximum of 30 billion GEL. This is obviously a very worrying indicator in the long run,

But solving short-term tasks is more vital for the government - the 2020 parliamentary elections are at the door, and it is important that the current situation of ordinary voters in the crisis-stricken and impoverished country is relatively improved and motivated to support the government.
(Translated by Mariam Mchedlidze)