Parliamentary budget office predicts a 90% decrease in tourism in Q3
By Natalia Kochiashvili
Tuesday, August 25
According to the forecast of the Parliamentary Budget Office, the real GDP growth rate in the third quarter of 2020 will be negative (-6.2%). Office analysts say the expected decline in GDP is still due to the COVID 19 pandemic.
“Despite the lifting or easing of various types of restrictions in some cases, the shock of external demand is still significant, and in the face of the global pandemic, the global value chain is still significantly disrupted, leading to supply shocks,” the budget office said in a statement.
As for other forecasts, according to the Parliamentary Budget Office says that private investment will decrease, which, despite the government's investment activities, significantly contributes to the reduction of total investment and the mentioned negative pace of economic activity.
Along with the sharp decline in trade in services, a decline in trade in goods is also expected. In parallel with reduced consumption and private investment, it is expected that the imports of goods will be significantly reduced. Due to similar developments in the world, it is expected that the demand for exports will decrease and, consequently, the volume of exports of goods will decrease.
Compared to the third quarter of 2019, the volume of tourism will decrease by about 90%, at the same time the number of tourists leaving the country will be sharply reduced. The document states that a significant decrease in tourism exports will be partially offset by domestic tourism activity.
According to the Georgian National Tourism Administration, 45,842 international visitors visited Georgia in July 2020, which is 94.8% less than the same period last year.
In the second quarter of this year, Georgian residents made 36,691 visits abroad, which is 93.5% less than in the same period last year, according to a report published by Geostat on tourism in the second quarter.
Like the record decline in international visitors to Georgia, the high decline in outbound tourism is explained by the COVID 19 pandemic.
According to statistics, the majority of visits - 88.2% - were made by men, which is probably since, during the pandemic, the majority of visitors went for freight transportation, while the majority of truck drivers are men.
However, according to the data published by Geostat, the age of the majority of visits (48.4%) in the second quarter of this year is 31-50 years.
In the first half of 2019, Georgian residents made 1 million visits abroad, and in the first half of this year - 489.2 thousand, which is a decrease of 53.2%.
