Expecting a one-party state

Talks between the government and the opposition that have been going on since the October 31 elections have reached a deadlock. The opposition's demand for new parliamentary elections is unacceptable to the government.

The Parliament of the 10th convocation is expected to hold its 1st sitting on December 11. The Parliament will be one-party, as no opposition party intends to enter parliament. The confrontation between the government and the opposition will intensify even more.

The Georgian Dream celebrated its third victory in the October 31 parliamentary elections and won 91 seats in the 150-member legislature (61 proportional and 30 majoritarian seats). It does not need any coalition and alone can form a government and make decisions.

The other 59 seats are supposed to be in the hands of 8 opposition parties. Georgian Dream probably did not expect that the opposition was so outraged by the rigging of the elections that they refused to enter Parliament. The advice of Western friends didn't change the opposition's decision either.

Meetings between the opposition and the ruling team, mediated by foreign diplomats, began. Two rounds were held on November 12 and 14, and the appointment of a third-round was delayed. This is understandable. The opposition demands:

Changing the election administration, releasing political prisoners, and, especially, calling new elections is unacceptable for the Georgian Dream. In such conditions, there is practically nothing to talk about.

The government's goal is to get at least part of the opposition to agree to enter Parliament. There was a statement from the authorities that if the opposition parties did not enter Parliament, they would not receive budget funding. which is very important for the opposition parties (according to the results of the last elections, the budget funding belongs to 14 parties, most of it- to the Georgian Dream).

Parties receive funding from the state, not for their parliamentary activities, but for their development.

The issue of receiving budget funding caused a stir among the opposition parties - some opposition parties, despite the boycott, considered it possible to take the money, while two opposition parties (Girchi said Aleko Elisashvili's Citizens) rejected it.

In their opinion, receiving state funding in 2020 is an indirect recognition of the election results.

While waiting for another round of talks, four members of the opposition (Nika Melia, Gigi Ugulava, Irakli Okruashvili, and Nika Gvaramia) were suddenly notified of the resumption of their trials. In this, the opposition saw "Ivanishvili's evil tactics", who wants to intimidate political opponents. However, it was soon announced that these processes had been postponed indefinitely due to the epidemic. The opposition believes that the government had to retreat due to a negative international reaction.

In any case, opposition parties in Parliament say the issue of a parliamentary boycott will not be considered. According to the 4th President of Georgia Giorgi Margvelashvili, the entry of the opposition in the Parliament will be their political collapse, because by doing so they will recognize the rigged elections and will have to play the role of puppets for them.

Due to the difficult epidemiological situation in the country, the opposition will no longer hold the crowded rally in front of the Parliament on its opening day, but it will still protest. Opposition parties will gather in front of the Metekhi Cathedral and adopt three documents:

The first document will be the statement of the opposition spectrum that the elections are rigged and the opposition demands re-elections, electoral changes, and the release of political prisoners. The second document will be the statements of the specific political leaders who were to enter the rigged elections in the Parliament and refuse to do so. The third document will be the party application, which will open the party registration, party lists and none of the parties will replace the existing MPs.

The Georgian Dream will have to start working alone in the Parliament, it has the right and opportunity to do so, but the absence of the opposition will greatly damage its image. One-party Parliament will find it difficult to forge associations with democracy. One way or another, the Georgian Dream Parliament, after convening, will first have to accept the unapproved 2021 state budget left by the previous Parliament.

This budget has been criticized many times by the opposition and several experts. "There are no parameters in the draft state budget for 2021 that will give us hope for the coming year," says Badri Japaridze, one of the leaders of Lelo. Parliament must approve the 2021 state budget by the end of December 2020.

According to the opposition, as a result of the 8-year rule of the Georgian Dream, Georgia has returned to the Shevardnadze era in macroeconomic terms. In 2021, Georgia's foreign debt will be 61% of GDP. The country is in a serious economic crisis and is facing a real threat of default.

According to the leader of the European Georgia Davit Bakradze, the second trouble with the massive debt is that the corrupt government is not spending it sufficiently to help the situation.

Georgia is in a deep economic and political crisis with a pandemic out of control, and the Georgian Dream, which remains in power for a third term, must find a way out of this.
(Translated from Georgian by Mariam Mchedlidze)