European efforts to settle the Georgian crisis fail
By Malkhaz Matsaberidze
Thursday, April 8
Georgia met the 30th anniversary of the independence referendum in a deep crisis. The second round of Council of Europe mediation talks between the government and the opposition ended in vain. The parties blamed each other for the disruption of the talks, and for the further polarization of the Georgian society increased even more. "Georgian Dream" considers itself the winner after the failed talks, while the opposition is preparing for protest rallies. The first mass protest is scheduled for May 15. Authorities claim that the opposition will not be able to bring people to the streets.
30 years ago, on March 31, 1991, a referendum was held in Georgia, where the vast majority of the population supported the restoration of Georgia's independence. Building an independent state in Georgia proved to be extremely difficult. The country's attempt to escape Russian orbit, first from Soviet and then post-Soviet Russia, was met with fierce resistance from what we now call a "hybrid war" that took the form of a direct military strike in 2008. Georgia also had achievements on the path to independence, mainly reflected in its Western orientation and steps towards democracy.
October 31, 2020, parliamentary elections turned out to be the threshold after which the country found itself in a deep crisis. After the elections, the Georgian Dream announced that it would remain in power for a third term, which no post-Soviet government in Georgia had been able to do, while the opposition unanimously believed that the elections were rigged and that the coalition of opposition parties had won. The parties have not changed their position since then. The case was not helped by the mediation of the Council of Europe, despite the efforts of Mr. Danielson, the representative appointed by the President of the Council of Europe, and two grueling rounds of negotiations.
Part of the opposition also talked about the shortcomings of mediation. Under pressure from the Georgian Dream, two points that were fundamentally important to the opposition - the early parliamentary elections and the unconditional release of political prisoners - disappeared from the five-point plan previously agreed upon by Charles Michel.
It seems that the final text submitted by Danielson was known in advance to "Dream". That the issue of early elections was no longer in the final text submitted by the mediator to the parties, was especially noted by the authorities after a fruitless round of negotiations. The government was saying the democracy of last year's elections is undeniable for Europe as well. The opposition bloc says the Council of Europe should have been tougher and more demanding on the Georgian Dream, and talks may have been successful.
It is now difficult to say what the president of the Council of Europe will do, whether there will be the third round of talks or not. However, they know for sure that the opposition will not give up its main demands, and another fruitless round of talks will simply discredit the authority of the leadership of the Council of Europe in the eyes of the Georgian public. Ineffective negotiations have further increased the political polarization of the society. For the government, the opposition that refuses to enter parliament is "unconstructive", "destructive", "anti-state", which must cease to exist.
For the boycotted opposition, the Georgian Dream is a puppet government in Russia's interests in Georgia, which only talks about a Western orientation, Euro-Atlantic integration, and in fact, leads the country to Russia.
Part of the opposition also spoke about the shortcomings of mediation. Under the pressure of the Georgian Dream, two points that were fundamentally important to the opposition disappeared from the five-point plan agreed upon by Charles Michel in the mediation process - early parliamentary elections and the unconditional release of political prisoners.
It was considered symbolic and outrageous by civil activists that the day after Danielson's departure, on March 31, the anniversary of the independence referendum, a group of 50 Russian journalists were allowed to enter Georgia to pay for Vladimir Posner's birthday in Tbilisi. Posner is Putin’s journalist who has always justified Russia's aggression against Georgia or Ukraine.
Posner, for example, said Abkhazia would never be part of Georgia. Their appearance in Tbilisi during a curfew in a restaurant caused a noisy rally. This is another indication that even a small step towards Moscow will be followed by a public outcry.
A country with broken mediation and increased polarization is facing serious problems. The GEL exchange rate is falling catastrophically, the country's foreign debt has reached a dangerous level when new debts are already becoming problematic, a new wave of epidemics is approaching, the economy has been in crisis for a long time.
Protests are periodically held in various parts of the country over social and environmental issues. "Georgian Dream" is left alone in power and, as a rule, it will have to deal with these problems that threaten a big explosion of severe social issues.
