Georgian Dream’s Constitutional Games
By Malkhaz Matsaberidze
Monday, December 6
Georgian Dream refuses to accept the constitutional amendments, which provide for a 2% election threshold. This has angered much of the opposition political spectrum as the ruling party violates another condition set out in the April 19 agreement and deprives newly formed small political parties of the opportunity to develop, which are unlikely to cross the 5% threshold.
Recently, Mikheil Saakashvili's hunger and trial have been in the spotlight of Georgian politics, but a number of steps taken by the government have brought other issues to the public's attention, including the appointment of new judges and constitutional reform.
Just as Prime Minister Gharibashvili was in Brussels to meet with Council of Europe President Charles Michel, the Georgian Dream was appointing new judges to the Georgian parliament, with party leader Irakli Kobakhidze saying a constitutional amendment passed in the first reading would provide for a 2% threshold. Presumably, it would no longer be implemented.
The agreement reached on April 19, mediated by Charles Michel, between the government and the opposition also provided for electoral reform, including holding the next parliamentary elections in a fully proportional system and introducing a natural or at most 2% threshold for the next two parliamentary elections.
Although the Georgian Dream left the agreement unilaterally in early July, it said it would remain committed to the reforms envisaged in the document.
On September 7, the Parliament of Georgia has already adopted the package of relevant amendments in the first reading and needs two more hearings to enter into force. The amendments to the constitution need 113 votes, the Georgian Dream has 84 votes, the amendments required the votes of the opposition parties - "National Movement", "Lelo" and others.
It seems that there was a consensus on this issue, which is rare in Georgian politics, but on November 30, Irakli Kobakhidze turned everything upside down when he told reporters that there was no need to make these changes.
But if the constitutional amendments are adopted, which will be a "gift" to the opposition, the wording "next elections" will be removed from the draft, so the threshold will be reduced and the transition to a proportional system will take place only in 2024 and will not apply to snap elections.
Kobakhidze's statement was followed by the outrage of the opposition, that the current ruling party is not worth breaking the floor and there is no point in thinking about an agreement with him. However, moral reproach is largely useless in politics. The main thing is to find out what calculations the "Georgian Dream" can have.
Kobakhidze's statement about removing the words "next elections" and enacting the changes from 2024, suggested that the "Georgian Dream" allows the possibility of holding early parliamentary elections, which is required by the opposition.
"Dream" wants him to hold these elections not with a purely proportional system, which will take effect in 2024, but with the existing mixed system (120 proportional + 30 majoritarian). GD’s MPs are very hopeful of the government, as it believes that it will not be difficult to withdraw its candidates as MPs.
On the other hand, Kobakhidze linked the adoption of the 2% threshold to the "good behavior" of opposition parties. Badri Japaridze, one of the leaders of "Lelo" said what it means. According to him, in exchange for the low threshold, the Georgian Dream demanded the removal of the rule of appointment of the Prosecutor General (by a 3/5 majority) from the constitutional amendments.
In addition, the ruling party may suggest holding some negotiations with smaller parties, from which it may require separation from the "radical" opposition.
Kobakhidze, obviously, voiced what the "Georgian Dream" agreed on, including the leader who left his politics. What can the opposition do in this reality?
On behalf of the United National Movement, Nika Melia asked the Speaker of the Parliament to ensure that the ruling party adopts the current constitutional amendments in the second and third readings within a month, in December of this year, with the participation of the main opposition party.
Otherwise, the "National Movement" will leave the parliament. He probably imitates "Lelo". As for the other smaller opposition parties (Girchi II, Elisashvili's Citizens, Strategy Builder), they are unlikely to leave parliament.
Paata Manjgaladze, a representative of the Strategy Builder, said that one could not rely on street rallies alone and that the opposition should create discomfort for the Georgian Dream even if it was in parliament. According to Giga Bokeria, the Georgian Dream will adopt the constitutional amendments only as a result of strong pressure from inside the country and especially from outside. However, such conditions are not seen at present.
In short, the situation is as follows: "Georgian Dream" feels strong and refrains from constitutional changes, which were previously imposed. European friends talk about the implementation of democratic reforms, they also agree, but it does not go beyond that. The United National Movement and its allies will continue rallies demanding early parliamentary elections and the release of Mikheil Saakashvili.
At the same time, everyone is well aware that only large-scale actions can lead the government to make concessions. "Georgian Dream" thinks that the "radical opposition" will not be able to do that.