Why Bibilov Started Talking About Referendum on Joining Russia
By Malkhaz Matsaberidze
Monday, April 11, 2022
Occupied Tskhinvali’s de-facto president Alexander Bibilov held ‘elections’ on April 10. This was preceded by him actively talking about holding a referendum on ‘joining Russia.’
Without consulting Moscow and obtaining permission from it, it is doubtful that Bibilov will be the subject of active discussion. Now local experts are voicing different versions of what exactly Russia wants to achieve.
It is well known that the ‘independent’ rulers of Tskhinvali are not very careful about this supposedly ‘recognized’ independence by Moscow. They have already held such a ‘referendum’ twice - during the previous ‘presidents’ Eduard Kokoity and Leonid Tibilov.
In these referendums, where the Ossetian population remaining in the region had to take part in a mandatory Lama rule, there was certainly a desire to unite with Russia. Bibilov, the current ruler of Tskhinvali, has been actively talking about joining Russia for years and has even announced a new referendum.
The situation in the Russian-occupied Tskhinvali region today is such that the real population is 30-40 thousand, and there are about 7 thousand military servicemen at the Russian bases located there. ‘Independent’ Tskhinvali does not have its own ‘army’ and the Ossetians there serve directly in the Russian army. Some of them have been sent to Ukraine for war, but it’s difficult to assume how many exactly. According to Bibilov, 1000. Some in Tskhinvali expressed dissatisfaction - “Ossetian gene is being destroyed.”
It can be said that not so many were sent to Ukraine and not all Ossetians will be sent.
He is already talking about two referendums at the same time - one for ‘unification’ with Russia, and the other for unification with ‘Ossetia-Alania’, which is part of the Russian Federation. “We are late, when Crimea returned to the ‘motherland’ in 2014, we should have joined Russia,” Bibilov noted. Well, in 2014, Putin's Russia was doing better than in 2022. The question now is why Putin's Russia needed to raise this issue today. Local experts name two possible versions.
According to one version, against the background of failures in Ukraine, Putin needs to win somewhere easy to maintain his face, and this is the easiest thing to do for today's Georgia. The government of the ‘Georgian Dream’ is becoming an example for Moscow with its “non-irritation” Kremlin policy.
“This is the will of the people of South Ossetia and we respect it,” Kremlin spokesman Peskov told reporters about the referendum on Bibilov. Several deputies of the Russian Duma also welcomed Bibilov's intention.
Andrei Klimov, a spokesman for Russia's ruling United Russia party, said there would be no ‘legal obstacles’ to the Tskhinvali region joining Russia after the referendum.
So to cover up the failure in Ukraine, Moscow may consider another victory over Georgia. But in this case, what will be the argument of the Georgian Dream? Statements like “Saakashvili lost the Tskhinvali region” and how is that our fault, or shall we start a war” will not be enough.
The Georgian policy of not ‘irritating Moscow’ is also failing, and it’s not certain whether Russia’s attempt to avoid Western sanctions through Georgia will work. Official Tbilisi responded to Bibilov by saying that “it is unacceptable to talk about a referendum against the background of the fact that the territory of Georgia is occupied.”
There is another version among Georgian experts - Bibilov's talk about another referendum on unification with Russia serves to intimidate the Georgian society and, in fact, is even a help to the ‘Georgian Dream’.
The opposition criticizes the Georgian Dream for not joining Western sanctions on Russia and has a rather strained relationship with the Russian government under ‘aggression’ with the Russian-occupied Ukrainian government, which has been accused of waging a ‘hybrid war’ against Georgia.
In such conditions, naturally, a simple question may arise in the Georgian society, including the supporters of the ‘Dream’ - what does Georgia receive from Russia in exchange for Moscow's ‘no-irritation’ policy?
Everybody sees the reality, - the occupation continues, so-called ‘borderization’, an expansion of the occupied territory continues, Russian troops cross the occupation line, kidnap Georgian citizens and torture them in prison for “border violation.”
Russia’s list of anti-Georgian actions is large. There is a new argument that if “we’re not smart about it”, that is, if we’re not docile enough, Russia will do worse, and declare the Tskhinvali region part of the Russian Federation.
However, Bibilov in his idea of a referendum is already overshadowed by other topics in the Georgian media. Russia’s attack on Ukraine and inhumane cruelty have made everything black and white.
There are only two choices: Being on Ukraine’s side and united with the West to defend it, or becoming a Russian satellite and moving away from the West. The sympathies of the Georgian society are on the side of Ukraine and have long demanded that the government take concrete steps in this direction.