Azerbaijani peace perspective between Armenia-Azerbaijan

By Malkhaz Matsaberidze

Tuesday, September 27, 2022

On September 13, the largest-scale clashes between Armenia and Azerbaijan began after the 2020 war. The sides, as always, blame each other, but the advantage is clearly on the side of Azerbaijan, which is increasing the scale of its victory.

Armenia is in the most difficult situation, and actually no longer has solid security guarantees. Its government has to make new concessions. This increases the possibility of deepening the internal political crisis in Armenia and does not mean the achievement of solid peace with Azerbaijan.

Unlike all previous Armenian-Azerbaijani conflicts, which were confined to Nagorno-Karabakh, this time the clashes took place directly along the Armenian-Azerbaijani border, a total stretch of about 100 kilometers. The territory of Armenia was under fire, and a Russian military unit was already under fire twice - once a base, the second time a Russian military convoy. During the 44-day war of 2020, Azerbaijan refrained from attacking not only the Russian military but also the territory of Armenia, fearing involvement in the conflict on the part of Russia and the "Collective Defense Organization".

On September 13, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan asked Russia and the Collective Defense Organization for help. As a rule, the Kremlin, according to available information, has put its military base in Gyumri on alert, however, Armenia was refused military aid and was advised to solve the problems diplomatically.

Not even the "Collective Defense Organization" (CSTO) will provide any assistance to Armenia, which is created around Russia and will not do anything without Russia. Who will help Armenia from this organization - Belarus, whose unchanged leader has good relations with Aliyev, Turkic-speaking Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan, or Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, between which there is a strained relationship?

In Azerbaijan, it seems, they have well understood that in the conditions of the defeat in Ukraine, today Moscow has neither the power nor the political will to find any help to Armenia and decided to take advantage of the created situation. Moreover, Azerbaijan is not alone and its active supporter is Turkey, for which the strengthening of Azerbaijan's positions means further increasing its influence in the region.

Armenia has a great chance of losing the new war completely because, after the brutal defeat in the last Karabakh war of 2020, the military-political and economic situation of Armenia remains difficult. He has neither the funds to restore the lost weapons, nor does he have a supplier of these weapons. Armenia used to buy weapons from Russia, but Russia, involved in the war with Ukraine and under sanctions, now has to buy some types of weapons from North Korea and Iran.

A number of Russian experts consider the population of Armenia "unfriendly towards Russia", and some consider the accession of Armenia to the Russian Federation as the only guarantee of Armenia's security. In Armenia, they are talking about the fact that Russia is no longer a guarantee of Armenia's security and, on the contrary, creates problems, because in the conditions of the presence of the Russian military base in Armenia, no other country will supply Armenia with weapons.

A number of Russian experts consider the population of Armenia "unfriendly towards Russia", and some consider the accession of Armenia to the Russian Federation as the only guarantee of Armenia's security. In Armenia, they are really talking about the fact that Russia is no longer a guarantee of Armenia's security and, on the contrary, creates problems, because, in the conditions of the presence of the Russian military base in Armenia, no other country will supply Armenia with weapons.

After the victory in the 44-day war, Azerbaijan is methodically increasing its advantage. On August 25, Azerbaijan took full control of the city of Lachin and the Lachin Corridor, which connects Armenia with the part of Nagorno-Karabakh where the Armenian population remains and Russian peacekeepers are stationed. By order of Ilham Aliyev, a new 23-kilometer ring road was built, which replaced the Lachin Corridor.

On August 31, in Brussels, already through the mediation of the European Union, Armenia and Azerbaijan discussed the terms of the peace agreement. The agreement should be based on the five principles presented by Azerbaijan, while Armenia failed to include the issue of the status of Karabakh on the agenda and was unable to renew the work of the OSCE Minsk Group on the issue of Karabakh.

With the threat of a new war, Pashinyan is forced to agree to recognize the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan and therefore to recognize Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan, without demanding any status for it, and Azerbaijan demands the demarcation of the border with Armenia on its terms, however, in addition, it becomes the main interest of Azerbaijan (and Turkey) that What was discussed in the agreement reached after the 44-day war.

Armenia agreed to provide a corridor between Azerbaijan and Nakhchivan through its territory. Thus, Azerbaijan and Turkey will be directly connected by land. This will significantly change the geopolitical and geo-economic situation in the region.

As experts note, Azerbaijan can only be stopped by the involvement of new players in the region, which has not been seen so far. There were only warnings from the US and France about protecting Armenia's territorial integrity. On September 15-16, the Shanghai Organization Summit will be held in Uzbekistan. The Prime Minister of Armenia and the President of Azerbaijan are invited to this summit. Putin and Erdogan will also be there, who will discuss Armenia-Azerbaijan relations.

What should Georgia do at this time, when its two neighbors are at war? After the renewal of the conflict with Azerbaijan, Prime Minister of Armenia Pashinani talked to Prime Minister Gharibashvili by phone and expressed his desire to resolve the conflict peacefully and Georgia's readiness to carry out active mediation for de-escalation and peace in the region. However, today's Georgia does not represent a player in the international arena who will be given a serious account. A strange situation is emerging - Armenia is irritated by Russian guarantees and is looking for support in the West, while the Georgian government creates problems with the West, its natural ally, and tries to please Moscow.