Why do voters in Georgia have trouble finding a party that supports their interests?
By Malkhaz Matsaberidze
Tuesday, October 4, 2022
The opposition threatened the government with a "hot autumn" full of mass demonstrations, but the autumn has already arrived and there are no announced protests. Although there is a lot of dissatisfaction in society, most of them do not trust the existing political parties. In such conditions, either a new party must appear, or a wave of protests, uncontrolled by political forces, erupts in the society for some reason.
Public opinion surveys conducted by the CRRC commissioned by NDI are often not well received by the government, but the results of the survey conducted in August 2022 were clearly met with approval in the party rating section. 25% of respondents said that they support the ruling political force "Georgian Dream". This indicator is not high for a party that is single-handedly ruling the country, but 25% is catastrophically low against the background of the opposition.
The support of the United National Movement is 8%. This party is traditionally considered the "main opposition force", but no outstanding activity of this party has been seen for quite some time now. Some blame it on its current leader Nika Melia, and others on the imprisonment of the real leader of the party, Mikheil Saakashvili. The indicators of other parties are even more catastrophic:
Strategy Aghmashenebeli" to 1% and the party "For Georgia" to 1%. The support of all other parties is 10% in total. As the authors of the study note, the individual rate of support for the parties is so low that it cannot be used to predict the results of the elections.
When commenting on the results of the said survey, government representatives and pro-government experts talk about the complete bankruptcy of the "radical opposition", which has completely lost the support of the people. According to a number of experts, the opposition's traditional demand for early elections is more favorable to the current government than to the opposition. But we should not expect that the government will go to extraordinary elections easily. No one really knows how the electorate dissatisfied with the government will behave and how the "election machine" built over the years will work, which sometimes provides the desired results for the government.
The poll mentioned above once again showed that the majority of voters are politically undecided. The majority of the population does not know or does not name the party that is closest to its views. 56% of respondents say that there is no party in Georgia that expresses their interests. Among young people, this figure is 65%. In addition, no matter how strange it is, the majority of respondents - 66% are ready to go to the elections. In Tbilisi, this indicator reaches 71%. That is, some people do not know who to vote for, but are ready to go to the elections.
The majority of the population believes that neither the ruling party nor the elected opposition parties (in parliament or self-government) act in the interests of the country. 51% of respondents in December 2021 and 59% in August 2022 had such an assessment of the ruling party. The similar assessment of the opposition increased from 53% to 67%. Ethnic minorities and rural settlements have the most positive attitude towards the ruling party.
The survey showed that most of the supporters of the opposition parties (80%) believe that the opposition does not act in their interests. The situation along with the growth of dissatisfaction with the government, and dissatisfaction with the opposition has been fixed for quite some time, and the opposition should have drawn serious conclusions from this, but as we can see, the situation has only worsened for them.
The idea has been popular in the opposition for a long time. year Regarding the creation of the "third political force". Many on the opposition side argued that the "National Movement" would never again gain the support of the majority of the disaffected electorate, and all political forces associated with it would be doomed to defeat. Despite such efforts, the "third political force" is not visible. Shortly after the publication of the mentioned rating, an announcement was made about the creation of a bloc by three opposition forces - "Strategy Aghmashenebeli", "Lelo" and "Girchi - more freedom". However, this was immediately denied by "Lelo" representatives. The government again declared the mentioned parties as divisions of the "National Movement" and doomed to failure.
The ruling party's reaction to the created reality is also strange. From "Georgian dreams" E. year The four who are busy cursing the West remain members of the majority. The mentioned four announced that they intend to turn into a political entity called "People's Power" and are waiting for the addition of new deputies from "Georgian Dream". In the West, they are already directly demanding that the four be separated from the "Georgian Dream" if they do not say what the "Dream" actually thinks. The purpose of "Otkheuli" is to stir up anti-Western sentiment in Georgia, and anti-Western propaganda became extremely large-scale after Russia's attack on Ukraine.
Despite the open anti-Western campaign, the vast majority of society still supports Western orientation. 75% support EU membership, and 69% support NATO membership. Supporters of the pro-Western course have increased significantly: 47% of the interviewees are unequivocally in this position, 31% support maintaining good relations with Russia along with orientation towards the West. Russian orientation is only 2%. Based on the mood of the majority of the population, it is clear what these people demand from the opposition first of all. The most important issue is the fulfillment of the 12 requirements of the European Union.