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Uncertainty in Georgian politics

By Malkhaz Matsaberidze
Friday, October 21, 2022
A few months ago, the opposition promised a "hot" political autumn and thus justified the summer's passivity, but the autumn has come a long time ago and the activity of the opposition has stayed a promise. On the contrary, the opposition part of the political spectrum is experiencing a clear crisis and does not pose any real threat to the ruling "Georgian Dream".

One of the main manifestations of the opposition's weakness and vulnerability are the internal problems of the "National Movement", which is considered the main opposition party. The party has been virtually absent from the political scene for a long time. The real leader of the party, Mikheil Saakashvili, is not only arrested but also declares that he is no longer interested in Georgian politics. However, for many supporters of the "National Movement", this party is associated with Mikheil Saakashvili, and his departure from Georgian politics will significantly weaken the "National Movement".

The media has been talking about the internal problems of the "National Movement". The real purpose of not a small part of these materials is to further weaken this opposition party. This incentive has to be the main idea around the campaign launched against the current leader of the party, Nika Melia, claiming that it costs the party about 1.5 million to keep him, which Melia categorically denies.

It is also said that without Saakashvili, the "National Movement" may break up into several parties - primarily separating Nika Melia's and Kezerashvili's groups from each other. On the other hand, "National Movement" claims that everything is under control and that the party maintains its integrity. However, it is clear that this party is not having a good time either in terms of rating or its own activity.

The weakening of the "National Movement" should, at first glance, make room for the strengthening of other opposition forces and give a real face to the once popular "third political force" formation plan, although there is no change in this regard either.

Giorgi Vashadze, an enthusiast of the formation of the "Third Political Force", the leader of "Strategy Agmashenebeli", again states that a large union of opposition parties of Western orientation is being formed, which is the only way to defeat the "Georgian Dream". Such unification of the opposition is welcome, but so far no real steps have been taken in this direction.

The main controversy between the government and the opposition is regarding the fulfillment of 12 demands of the European Union. The opposition claims that Georgian Dream is only imitating that it is trying to fulfill these demands, while Georgian Dream claims that the opposition is boycotting and hindering the work done by the ruling party to fulfill the mentioned demands.

The history of the development of the anti-oligarchic law has shown that Georgian Dream and the opposition have different visions of the demands to be fulfilled, and the opposition cannot take its point of view during decision-making.

No matter how Georgian Dream debates, the official party will still get its way and the opposition will only play the role of "democratic decoration". That is why a number of representatives of the opposition claim that the pro-Western opposition has nothing to do in the parliament and that they should not mislead the public by being there, as if they were able to do something. This part of the opposition considers street actions and mobilization of people's protest as a way of struggle.

There is a significant change in the official part of the political spectrum - Georgian Dream lost the parliamentary majority. Five of its members have moved to the "renegade" four, and now 9 members of "Dream" have joined the new political party People's Power, whose main message is to criticize Georgia's Western partners and incite anti-Western sentiment in the country.

Georgian Dream officially dissociates itself from anti-Western rhetoric, although it enters into a coalition with this anti-Western party. "People's Power" claims that it remains in the parliamentary majority.

In the creation and strengthening of "People's Power" and anti-Western propaganda, the opposition sees the game initiated by Bidzina Ivanishvili, who is trying to catch several rabbits together:

To please Russia, to trade politically with the West, to maintain and increase the pro-Russian electorate, to block the fulfillment of EU demands with "People's Power" votes, to create a new political landscape, and to rely on the openly anti-Western "People's Power" along with the Georgian Dream.

The Georgian media also talked about the fact that Bidzina Ivanishvili may go for extraordinary elections. Early elections were a demand of the opposition in the spring, but as experts point out, the opposition in its current state is not ready for the elections and will be doomed to defeat. This is one of the reasons for planning extraordinary elections for Ivanishvili. The second reason is the uncertainty in the Russia-Ukraine war.

Russia "has not yet been defeated" and Ivanishvili will have more opportunities to record his victory, and in 2024, when the next parliamentary elections should be held in Georgia, Russia may already be defeated, and therefore betting on anti-Western rhetoric will no longer be very profitable.